EURUSD & Volatility - Watching USA v GER 26 Jun | Vantage FX

While you were watching… USA v Germany, 26th June 2014

June 27, 2014

USA v Germany 26 June 2014

America’s soccer coming-of-age

With football (or soccer as referred to by Americans and Australians) reaching its fever pitch in this year’s World Cup, the excitement for this game could not have been greater. The US match against Ghana pulled in 16 million American television viewers whilst the Portuguese match attracted a whopping 24.7 million viewers. The NBA final attracted 6 million less viewers than the game between USA and Portugal. Yesterday’s televised audience results have yet to be released but WatchESPN has hit a new record of 1.7 million concurrent viewers trying to stream the live match crashing the site and app1. The tweet below captures a snapshot of the crowd gathering in Grant Park, Chicago to watch the game.

Leading against the Portuguese team up until the last minute before Ronaldo’s save, the Americans surprised punters and delighted fans. In a strong group with both themselves and Ghana as formidable underdogs, advancing to the next stage was a mix of football maths. The US team needed to win or tie against Germany to secure their position for the next round of 16. If they were to lose, all was dependent on how Ghana and Portugal played. The odds for the US team to draw were sitting at 41/20, whilst the odds to win were sitting on 19/2. Thankfully for the Americans, losing by only one goal to Germany still allowed them to advance to the Top 16 – which unfortunately puts Portugal back on a plane home.

Two Eagles go head to head

  • #13 FIFA ranking position
  • 9 World Cup appearances, 0 titles
  • German born coach Jurgen Klinsmann has been attributed to much of the team’s success
  • #2 FIFA ranking position
  • 17 World Cup appearances,3 titles
  • Undefeated in qualification rounds with most goals in European qualifying zone
  • While they were watching…

    Most Americans had extended lunch breaks to watch the game, scores and dozens were taking sick leave endorsed personally by coach Klinsmann who’s note was virally shared by USA Soccer urging people to back their team by watching. Many bosses just gave up and called for pizza lunches to watch the game.2 What happened to the markets while the Americans stopped to watch the game, even as New York was in the middle of their session? How did Australians fare seeing it was 2am for them to be watching the game?

    A look at the EURUSD before and after the USA v GER game


    The EURUSD is the most commonly traded pair amongst our clients and is an ideal pair to look at during the match up between the Europeans and the Stars & Stripes. Even this was not enough to pull in the traders. Have a look at the green volume bars boom prior and early on in the game tapering off towards the end. The middle of the New York trading session and things have gone quiet? Even post game, the sideways action and low volume trade continued on. Wall Street Journal writer tweeted the below image from Wall Street data capturing a similar sentiment.

    Low volatility just due to the football?

    Funnily enough with many around the world suggesting the downturn in volatility can be attributed to the World Cup, others have suggested this is just a general global trend and the football barely dents it. CNBC’s Jeff Cox has suggested though it only “appear to be low” even if the CBOE Volatility Index is sitting at levels similar to that of the GFC and the early 90s recession and that implied volatility is all there. Fellow CNBC Senior Analyst Ron Insana proposes this as the perfect time for “the little guy a chance to re-enter the market.”4, 5

    Still wanting to trade in these quiet times?

    MXT Global’s Chief Currency Strategist, Anthony Wu, has released a quick guide on how-to-trade in these low volatile times, or as he refers to them – the ‘calm before the storm’. Generally, big changes could be up ahead. Reiterating CNBC’s Ron Insana, Anthony says this could be the ideal time to get started and hold on for the long-term. Look out for his guide coming soon. If you enjoyed today’s economics and forex match up with the football, see our other World Cup articles in the ‘While You Were Watching‘ series.

    1. Boston Globe, 2014
    2. The Guardian, 2014
    3. USA Today, 2014
    4. Jeff Cox,, 2014
    5. Ron Insana,, 2014

    About MXT Global
    MXT Global (MXT) is a financial services provider that aims to offer the best combination of customer service, online Forex trading technology and the tightest spreads in the market. We offer Australian and international traders access to popular trading platforms such as MetaTrader 4 (MT4), both PC and Mac, and desktop-free solutions such as mobile and Webtrader. MXT Global Pty Ltd (MXT) ACN 157 768 566 is regulated as a financial services provider by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) under Australian law (AFSL 428901).




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