Oil Shorts in Play or an Irrational Bias for Cheap Petrol?

March 13, 2017

I had a lighthearted conversation with a colleague not so long ago, asking if they feel they might have an irrational bias toward shorting oil, simply because the flow on effect will mean cheaper petrol when they go to fill up their cars later on.

I honestly feel I might have this! Am I alone here? Surely not.

Well, now we’ve got that little disclaimer out of the way, lets have a look at some oil charts. We’ve been watching this oil resistance zone that we can see on the weekly below.

Oil Weekly:
160313_oil_weekly
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Price has rejected out of the zone and we’ve seen some follow through, which has brought us down to retest the upper side of this bearish trend line, this time as possible support.

Oil Daily:
160313_oil_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

This is the level that’s in play, but seeing as though the higher time frame horizontal support has held and we’ve seen the follow through from sellers that we have, I am inclined to play oil from the short side.

Oil Hourly:
160313_oil_hourly
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Already we can see these types of short term pullbacks holding perfectly.

Are shorts in play already?

Just keep in mind my possible little irrational bias from above! 🙂

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Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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