Vantage FX | Stocks up on strong data, Aussie has a wild ride | 26 June 2013

June 26, 2013

Recap

Right, so you are going to read everywhere this morning that strong US data helped buoy the stock market overnight. But think about that for a second – doesn’t strong US data = taper? And if so then it looks like there was a large dose of cognitive dissonance in stock markets overnight with the Dow and S&P up.

No cognitive dissonance in bond markets though with the US 10 year blowing through resistance at settling at 2.61% this morning and maybe on its way to 2.90% before it finds any real support.

Of course the fact that the PBOC finally decided to discuss what is happening in the Chinese Money markets with Shibor calmed fears in Asia and in particular in Shanghai where the composite was down more than 5% at one stage before recovering to end roughly flat. This certainly helped markets in the following time zones but it doesn’t avoid the fact that the data last night brings taper closer not further away.

Stocks remain vulnerable and as such the USD should recover strongly

Just where do you start on the data front last night? On the face of it none of the data were spectacularly important but taken together they give a very good feel for what is happening in the economy right here and now. Durable goods jumped 3.6% against 3% expected. Richmond fed Manufacturing followed its recent Dallas counterpart by jumping sharply to +8 from -2 last month. Case Shiller said house prices are up 12.1% year on year against expectations of 10.6% while New Home Sales were 2.1% and Consumer Confidence jumped from 75.1 in May to 81.4 this month which is the best print since January 2008 before this whole mess really kicked off.

So you can see in this that Bernanke and the team will be smiling to themselves that they are doing the right thing and the market rally last night might prove ephemeral in the days and weeks ahead as thoughts and talk of the taper grows.

In the end though the Dow was up 100 points to 14760, the Nasdaq rose 0.82% to 3348 and the S&P 500 rose to 1588 up 0.95%. In Europe stocks were also higher with the FTSE up 1.21%, the DAX up 1.54%, the CAC up 1.51%, stocks in Madrid up 0.73% while in Milan the Bourse was 0.37% lower.

Aussie Dollar has another wild day

Note to self, and anyone ready – DO NOT TRADE WHEN YOU ARE SICK. I have spent a lot of time over the past couple of weeks collecting pips and building up a substantial return amongst all of the volatility. But in one fell swoop yesterday I managed to screw it up because I wasn’t paying attention and didn’t stick to my process – largely because I’m crook and should have turned to machine off.

So it wasn’t a banner day, the volatility that I love bit me on the backside and I got the relearn 2 lessons, don’t trade unless you are fit to trade and don’t deviate from your process. Stuff happens and we move on but gee whiz!

So speaking of volatility the Aussie has looked both very weak and very strong in equal measure at times over the past 24 hours. Opening around the 0.9250 region Aussie traded down to 0.9195 and all the way back to 0.9296 and sits up just 0.10% at 0.9256. At least Nicholas Darvas would be pleased because we know we are in a 0.9190-0.9300 box for the moment with an extension up 0.9325 and down to the low the other day of 0.9145. A break will likely kick one way or the other.

Clearly after all the downside recently and given the set up a break the topside is likely more decisive.

Elsewhere in FX land the Euro looks really weak to me and I continue to see it trading substantially lower in the days and weeks ahead. Over the past 24 hours the range has been 1.3150 down to 1.3063 and it sits at 1.3092 at the moment. Euro lost ground across the board slightly as well due to this weakness in the Euro outright. It is sitting just on the 200 day moving average at the moment and a break, and hold, will likely turn the trend back to negative.

USDJPY was a little higher trading up to 98.05 and GBP sits at 1.5425. The data in the US last night combined with 5 Fed speakers, in some form or the other tonight, should aid the US dollar across the board in the next 24 hours if the Bernanke, Kocherlakota, Fisher lead in over the past few days is any guide.

Commodities dull

Crude was largely unchanged up 0.15%, with gold and silver a similar amount either side of square for the past 24 hours.

Data

Gfk Consumer Confidence in Germany, GDP in France, UK Financial Stability report but we know the banks need to be recapitalised from this week so should have limited impact I guess and then the third read I think of US GDP.

AND 5, yes 5, Fed officials speaking in various contexts.

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