US Election Day 2016: A Look at AUD/USD

November 9, 2016

Welcome to the US #ElectionDay 2016!

With Clinton into $1.18 on Betfair at the time of writing, stocks are up, risk currencies are surging and Gold is pulling back as the Democrats look the more likely to win.

But with the increased risk, spreads widening and increased margin requirements in play, I want to stress that from a risk management point of view, how reckless taking positions from this point onward would be. Yes, that is a Forex broker’s official blog saying this. Don’t throw away your trading year for the sake of being in the market!

What do we do in the meantime though? Let’s take a look back at AUD/USD and the current state of play in the pair. 🙂

Now if you’re a reader of this blog, you’d know our long-term bias toward Aussie longs into the still possibly distant FOMC rate hike decision. We’ve been going on about it for what seems like forever, all based off first of all, the technical bounce off weekly support in our May AUD/USD view here:

AUD/USD Weekly:
COPY160530_audusd_weekly
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Then once that higher time frame level held, looking for a daily breakout, highlighted in our September AUD/USD view here.

AUD/USD Daily:
COPY160920_audusd_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

One indication of the volatility we’re likely to see today once some of the first vote counts start trickling through is the vertical rally we’re seeing in risk currencies such as the Aussie Dollar. All before things have even started to be properly counted.

The more hawkish than expected November RBA statement has seen the AUD/USD break out of the daily triangle we have been watching and the early Clinton lead looks set to give it the momentum to hold.

AUD/USD Daily:
161109_audusd_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Finally zooming into the intra-day charts, these are the sorts of lower time frame pullbacks to look out for entries within, offering excellent risk:reward.

AUD/USD 15 Minute:
161109_audusd_15minute
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Once again, DO NOT ruin your trading year by forcing yourself to be in the market when you know you don’t have to.

Good luck…

———

On the Calendar Wednesday:


Take advantage of opportunity in the market with Australian regulated forex broker, Vantage FX.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Risk Disclosure: In addition to the website disclaimer below, the material on this page prepared by Forex broker Vantage FX Pty Ltd does not contain a record of our prices or solicitation to trade. All opinions, forex news, research, tools, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and marketing communication – not as investment advice. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The expert writers express their personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the Forex account of the reader. We always aim for maximum accuracy and timeliness, and FX broker Vantage FX shall not be liable for any loss or damage, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on this service and its content, inaccurate information or typos. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the report will be achieved, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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