Trump Risk is Real | Vantage FX

Trump Risk is Real

September 27, 2016

Well here we are. We’ve ignored it long enough, but with the first US presidential debate starting today during the Asian session markets are going to have to face it soon enough. Donald Trump winning the United States presidential election is a real possibility.

Global markets currently have their head in the sand. There’s no other way to put it. It’s here, it’s real, and if it happens then things are going to get one hell of a mighty shake-up.

Wake up. Donald Trump, President of the United States of America could actually happen. Do those odds look familiar? Brexit type familiar?

There is a good piece on Bloomberg this morning, with this cracker of a quote from Credit Suisse:

“Despite the impending Nov. 8 election, equity [volatilities] are not pricing in much of an election risk premium, with S&P weekly options expiring Nov. 11 trading at just 0.9 vol point premium to Nov. 4 expiry — that’s less than what was priced in for the Fed meeting last week.”

Am I the only one to find that a little puzzling?

We spend our time on this blog focusing on where the biggest risk of a re-pricing will occur if market expectations are not met. Well the fact that markets stoll flat out refuse to believe that Trump will even come close to the White House is certainly an expectation with a real possibility of not being met.

Possibly bigger than any risk we’ve experienced for quite some time.

S&P 500 Weekly:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

USD/JPY Weekly:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

We’ll leave these two weekly charts here to refer back to if the proverbial does in fact hit the fan.

Live stream the debate on YouTube here:



On the Calendar Tuesday:
CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

USD CB Consumer Confidence

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Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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