The Monday After…

April 4, 2016

The Monday After…
Ah yes, the Monday after… This is what we got out of NFP Friday:

“USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m (0.3% v 0.2% expected)”

“USD Non-Farm Employment Change (215K v 206K expected and 245K revised up previous)”

“USD Unemployment Rate (5.0% v 4.9%)”

So as you can see, 215,000 jobs were added in March with a healthy +3,000 February revision. Average hourly earnings also increased from 0.2% to 0.3%, but the unemployment rate crept up to 5.0% from the previous 4.9%. This number was blamed on more people being roped into looking for work within the faltering bigger picture.

The night was another mixed bag, with the headline print ‘not terrible’ which shows strength is still there. But the tick up in the unemployment rate can be viewed as a sign that the weak underlying economy is forcing people back into the job market when maybe they wouldn’t have to if things were more stable.

Without having to go into the nitty gritty details which you can find on Bloomberg here, this double edged sword backs up Yellen’s ‘not yet’ approach to further rate hikes and the US Dollar reacted accordingly:

EUR/USD 15 Minute:
160404_eurusd_15minute
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Down/Up (Up/Down USD) right on that weekly range top that has been acting as resistance for basically 12 months now.

We spoke Friday about a muted reaction in USD the more likely scenario because if NFP was positive or not, it was likely to never be enough for the market to get excited.

That print was about as good as it could possibly get and price is back where it started again already.

The market is certainly showing a lot of belief in Yellen’s rhetoric!

———-

Chart of the Day:
Lastly for your Monday morning, Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has spoken to the Washington Post and predicted that the United States is on course for a “very massive recession”.

“I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble.”

Although the comments were as vague as you’d expect from a politician, unemployment and ‘overvalued’ stocks were cited by the big man.

“It’s a terrible time right now to invest in the stock market.”

S&P500 Weekly:
160404_sp500_weekly
Click on chart to see a larger view.

I can see politically why he’s saying what he’s saying, but looking at that S&P 500 weekly chart, there’s not many places you could have bought and currently be in a losing position!

———

On the Calendar Monday:
AUD Building Approvals m/m
AUD Retail Sales m/m

GBP Construction PMI

Do you see opportunity trading FX with Vantage FX? Take advantage on your own instant $50,000 Forex Forex demo.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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