Testify! | Vantage FX


November 5, 2015

Testifying on bank regulation before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC, Janet Yellen still managed to give markets some juicy monetary policy comments to sink their teeth into! While not delivering anything ground breakingly new, the fact that Yellen was able to reiterate the Fed’s stance that December was actually in play again is hugely significant.

With Yellen (and Dudley chiming in at his own delivery in NYC) saying that interest rates could increase in December, the qualifying statement of ‘if the data supports the move’ is always there. Either way, this saw the US Dollar move higher across the majors board overnight and sets the scene nicely for the labour market numbers come Friday night.

The most recent ISM Non-Manufacturing report also shed some light on the future direction, beating expectations quite handsomely.

“USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (59.1 v 56.6 expected)”

Check out the whole raft of Fed speakers in the Calendar section below, the pre-NFP action is only going to heat up from here!

Across the Atlantic:
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, we have the Bank of England meeting to come. With this recent USD strength, Cable sits in an interesting technical spot.

GBP/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

I’ve been watching price tease the stops above these clean highs for a while now, and can’t help but think it’s only a matter of time before they get the clean-out that they deserve.

Clean highs like this never last. Could tonight’s BoE decision be the catalyst for a sweep?


On the Calendar Thursday:
AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
GBP BOE Inflation Report
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

USD Unemployment Claims


Chart of the Day:
Damn. No bites in my search for a successful Palladium Trader. I guess we’ll have to leave the search running in the background and turn our attention to Gold. You have to fish where the fish swim after all!

XAU/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

After what looked like the beginnings of a promising recovery rally, Gold as had a bit of a fall from grace. Still trapped below its most recent weekly resistance level, the move away from it has been hard and fast.

Price has now come to the bottom of it’s short term channel. It looks to have broken the level, but with no pull-back and still no break of swing lows, there’s no way I can sell this here.

I’m waiting for the pull-back and happy to sell any weakness.

Do you see opportunity trading Gold?

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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