Stocks lower on Taper Talk but the Aussie Dollar got hammered

December 12, 2013

There was no major catalysts to trade on the data front overnight but the budget deal that has been agreed in the US is widely seen as just one less obstacle to the Fed beginning its Taper at next week’s FOMC meeting.

So at 7.10 AEDT with 50 minutes to go before the close the Dow is down 87 points or 0.55% to 15,887, the Nasdaq is 1.14% lower and the S&P 500 has lost 16 points or 0.87% to 1,787.

The S&P is resting on the slow moving average I use and should this break then the market should go for a run lower. 1775 would confirm and I’d look for a quick 20/30 point sell off if/once that happens.

As you can see I am still short.

In Europe the entrance of US traders in the morning ruined what had up till then been a good day for European traders and stocks finished in the red with a late afternoon sell off. At the end of play the FTSE was 0.23% lower, the DAX fell 0.41%, the CAC dropped 0.1%. In milan and Madrid the FTSEMIB was 1.44% lower and the IBEX fell 0.85%.

On the ASX overnight the Australian market has continued to be pressured with the Dec contract off 16 to 5098 bid while the March contract of the SPI200 is down 17 points to 5064 bid at 7.10 AEDT.

5030 is the target if the SPI 200 falls through 5085 today and then we’ll see where this sell off is headed.

ON Global FX markets the Euro sits at 1.3792 up 0.24% but off a high of 1.3810. Sterling is down 0.37% to 1.6384 and USDJPY has backed off 103 again and is down 0.31% at 102.53.

The Aussie is the big lower though getting hammered on the crosses and down 0.94% at 0.9064 this morning. Traders clearly took the Holden news as an excuse to sell particularly with employment coming out today at 11.30 AEDT with not much growth in employment currently expected by the market.

The big question is whether the Aussie can hold support or if it’s headed back under 90 cents.

Today’s employment report is key.

On commodity markets gold made a high around $1265 yesterday and is back at $1258 oz for a small lose of 0.31%. Silver was 0.19% higher and Nymex crude fell 1.08% to $97.45 even though there was a massive 10 million barrel draw according to EIA data overnight. Dr Copper managed to rally 3 cents a lb to $3.33 while in the Ags corn was 0.88% higher, wheat rose 0.12% and soybeans rose 0.39%.

On the data front there is important data in Australia today with the release of the employment report. This could be a very messy release because the punditry is expecting a rise in employment of 1,000 jobs which is highly unlikely to be correct given the volatility and big standard deviation of this release relative to forecasts. SO watch out for a reaction at 11.30 AEDT this morning from traders.

It’s a fairly light day otherwise with CPI in France and Italy out tonight along with the ECB monthly report and EU industrial production. In the US jobless claims will be the key release.

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