Riding the Aussie + Oil Markets Just Wont Learn

June 2, 2016

Image: Pexels

Riding the Aussie:
After highlighting the opportunity of a possible AUD/USD contrarian trade at the most recent swing lows, the deluge of Australian economic data that has been dumped this week saw the Aussie get a nice double kick to the upside.

AUD/USD Hourly:
160602_audusd_hourly
Click on chart to see a larger view.

But disappointing for AUD/USD bulls was the fact that after yesterday’s excellent headline GDP beat, the currency pair couldn’t hold onto its gains and the entire rally was wiped out not long into the New York trading session.

US ISM Manufacturing data beat expectations, but the trade-off between a June and July Fed rate hike for me still relies on the Fed’s willingness to move in the middle of a Brexit referendum. Having shown a reluctance to move in the past due to global concerns centred around China, I just can’t help but lean toward July.

There is actually an overwhelming amount of charts sitting at excellent levels which I’m looking forward to feeding out via the @VantageFX Twitter feed. If you’re not involved in the discussion over there, come and get involved today by giving us a mention.

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Charts of the Day:
We ended last week with a post on Oil’s $50 psychological level and it looks like the round number was enough to spook the bulls into covering some of their long positions into it.

OIL Daily:
160602_oil_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

With the official OPEC meeting back on the calendar in Vienna tonight, closed door talks in the lead up has revived the possibility of the block backing a production ceiling.

Just keep in mind that this narrative of high expectations and equally high disappointment has played out countless times over the last 12 months alone and there is no reason to expect tonight’s result to be any different. Oil markets just wont learn.

When Saudi Arabia and Iran are involved, it really is hard to feel overly bullish no matter what the WSJ headlines tell you.

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On the Calendar Thursday:
AUD Retail Sales m/m
AUD Trade Balance

EUR Italian Bank Holiday
GBP Construction PMI
EUR Minimum Bid Rate
EUR ECB Press Conference
ALL OPEC Meetings

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Claims
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories

Festa della Repubblica: (in English, Republic Day) is the Italian National Day and Republic Day, which is celebrated on 2 June each year. The day commemorates the institutional referendum held by universal suffrage in 1946, in which the Italian people were called to the polls to decide on the form of government, following the Second World War and the fall of Fascism.”

With a packed economic calendar today, trade with leading ECN Forex Broker Vantage FX and take advantage of news on your own live Forex trading account.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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