RBA Minutes – As You Were | Vantage FX

RBA Minutes – As You Were

October 20, 2015

RBA Minutes – As You Were:
A little later than normal for today’s Daily Market Update, but with the already old news that is the RBA Meeting Minutes coming mid morning, a recap is probably more useful than a preview anyway.

Casting our memories back to the 1st Tuesday of the month, we remember that the RBA held the cash rate steady at 2%. This was the 5th month in a row that the RBA sat on their hands and with a lack of any dovish guidance alongside the decision, the Aussie dollar got a much needed injection on the buy side.

Today’s minutes from the October meeting gave us nothing to expect anything different anytime soon, with a lack of guidance or a good old fashioned ‘jawboning’ highlighting the RBA’s neutral stance.

The @LiveSquawk Twitter account is excellent in terms of real time news analysis, and well worth a follow to compliment your trading. Here is their summary of the minutes:

“RBA Mins: Overall growth expected to have strengthened In Q3 – Spare capacity in economy, domestic cost pressures low.”

“RBA: Economy’s rebalancing increasingly supported by A$ fall – More evidence of economy rebalancing toward non-mining.”

“RBA: Labour market strengthened More than Expected – Recent Data Raising Concern Over China & East Asia, Weighing On Aus Exports.”

The full Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board can be found here.

AUD/USD Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

As you can see earlier in the month, the actual interest rate decision gave the Aussie a nice little kick after what was perceived as a ‘less dovish than expected’ RBA.

Interestingly, today’s minutes coincided with price sitting right on the AUD/USD confluence of support that we were watching yesterday. With the minutes not giving the market anything new to sink their teeth into, the technical level once again gave an opportunity for buyers to enter the market.

For me, the path of least resistance is still clearly to the upside. I have a feeling that we could be looking back at this level in a few weeks time and wondering how we were pedantically debating whether the area provided value. I look forward to hearing your views on the @VantageFX Twitter!


On the Calendar Tuesday:
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

USD Building Permits
USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks


Chart of the Day:
With the Aussie and Kiwi so often moving hand in hand, after yesterday’s AUD/USD chart in the Daily Market Update, we today take a look at NZD/USD.

NZD/USD Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

It’s the same story across the Tasman, with price bouncing after a long and sustained down trend. It is this short term bounce that has given us the above hourly trend line.

This Kiwi chart has given you opportunity after opportunity to buy each trend line re-test, with confirmation being the broken short term flags that show momentum is still with the buyers. You can learn a lot in hindsight by looking at this chart and how price reacts to, and moves between support and resistance zones inside trends.

Do you still see opportunity in the Kiwi/Dollar?

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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