One step from 100, market eyes on US retail sales

March 12, 2015

Again, the USD Index surged another 1% to 99.50, only a stone throw away from the 100 mark. The Fed official James Bullard stated that interest rate has stayed at near-zero levels for too long, considering the strong recovery of the job market. The Fed is behind time for the correct rate hike. Although he has no voting rights this year, Bullard’s statement may stand for some members in the committee.

Majors, like EUR, AUD, and GBP, reached new lows against the Dollar. The sterling is the newcomer of the group as it broke its February low around the 1.50 level. The integer level once provided strong supports, but as the Dollar now keeps its ultimate bullishness, any support seem to be feeble. GBPUSD once reached 1.4895 and further falling space now is opened. The next target may be 1.4813, July 2013’s low, where the double-bottom level was before Sterling started its last round of bullish trend towards 1.72.

GBPUSD 120315 | Vantage FX

Euro continues its falling against the Dollar and slumped to 1.0558 yesterday. The lower yields of European bonds due to the QE program was the main reason for the recent weakness of Euro. Now, the German 30-year treasury yield is even lower than the US 2-year one. The next bear target may be 1.0504, lows of 2003. To be honest, the technical analysis might not be that useful under this circumstance. However, if you are confused, please remind yourself before you trade: trend is your friend, and never catch a falling knife.

EURUSD 120315 | Vantage FX

Back to stock markets, Shanghai Composite rebounded 0.15% to 3291. The Nikkei Stock Average climbed 0.31%. Australian ASX 200 lost 0.53% to 5824. In European markets, the UK FTSE gained 0.28%, the German DAX surged 2.66% and the French CAC Index rocketed 2.37%. The US stocks fell as the rate hike is close. The S&P 500 closed 0.19% lower at 2040. The Dow slid 0.16% to 17635, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.29% to 4850.

On the data front, Australian job data will be released at 11:30 am AEDST, market will watch whether the decade-high unemployment rate will rise again. US retail sales and weekly unemployment claims will be out at 23:30 pm AEDST.

Have a great trading day!
Anthony


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