Oil Seeps Lower; CAD Spurts Higher

December 8, 2015

Oil Seeps Lower:
Oil prices seeped to their lowest level in over 6 years, breaking swing lows as oversupply was confirmed as not being abated any time soon. OPEC meetings ended with no resolution on production cuts and lacked any reference to output ceilings which was the big kicker in sending Oil to new lows.

Other Commodities were also prominent in the overnight news cycle, with major Australian export Iron Ore falling to lows, and now trading with a $30 handle next to its name. Those break-even prices continue to slip further and further away for many of the mid to smaller miners… well anyone not named BHP or Rio Tinto really. When the smaller end of town is forced out of the market, the supply side of the equation will come back into play and could send the Aussie higher.

Certainly a potential storyline to follow if you’re trading the Aussie.

AUD/USD 4 Hourly:
151208_audusd_4hourly
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Of course the Aussie Dollar took a hit on the back of these price headlines and after breaking out of its bearish channel, it is now crunch time for the short term change of trend.

CAD Spurts Higher:
Moving back to the Oil narrative, the commodity currency most affected is of course the Canadian Dollar.

USD/CAD 4 Hourly:
151208_usdcad_4hourly
Click on chart to see a larger view.

The CAD fell 1.2%, sending USD/CAD spurting higher to its highest level since 2004.

After coiling into a massive ascending triangle where each higher low soaked up the diminishing sellers, the only way for price to go was up.

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Featured on the Forex Calendar Tuesday:
AUD NAB Business Confidence
CNY Trade Balance

EUR Italian Bank Holiday
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m

CAD Building Permits m/m
CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Italian banks will be closed in observance of Immaculate Conception Day:

“The Feast of the Immaculate Conception celebrates the solemn belief in the Immaculate Conception of the Blessed Virgin Mary. It is universally celebrated on December 8, nine months before the feast of the Nativity of Mary.”

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Chart of the Day:
Lets take a closer look at the Oil chart.

Oil Daily:
151208_oil_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Taking a look at our first daily chart, we can see that oil, after failing to hold onto any sort of sustained break out, has been hugging its major bearish trend line. After last night’s price action, the bulls look to have finally given up on the level and we have now dropped back inside the trend line.

From here, we will be watching whether price re-tests the trend line as resistance again and look to short from there.

Oil Daily 2:
151208_oil_daily2
Click on chart to see a larger view.

The second daily chart just shows a simple parallel drawn from the major trend line above, but set to line up with some of the short term bottoms. The fact that this level lines up perfectly with the previous swing bottom at 37.75 gives Oil a nice confluence of support of which could give bulls their last stand.

With Commodities all taking a sizeable hit overnight, do you see opportunity trading these markets?

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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