NFP Friday Scenarios

October 2, 2015

Fundamental Expectations:
Another quarter down and following last week’s Fed remarks on October being in play, tonight’s NFP number takes on added significance.

The September jobs report number is expected to show that the US economy has managed to shrug off external concerns and a recent stock market price action roller-coaster, and continue to print numbers keeping the average moving in the right direction for the Fed to act on.

The Wall Street Journal has a brilliant little fundamental preview featuring the 5 things to watch in the September jobs report. I’ve featured the following chart showing an overview of the NFP numbers month to month with the average in question:


The September USD Non-Farm Employment Change number is expected to come in at 202K, an improvement on August’s 173K. The Unemployment Rate is also expected to hold steady at 5.1%.

With August’s print being the second weakest month of job creation for the calendar year, the above average is sure to attract some attention.

Trading Scenarios:
1. If Non-Farm Payrolls print greater than 200K + the Unemployment Rate stays steady as expected, the USD is expected to rally as the likelihood of a rate hike in 2015 will rise.

2. If Non-Farm Payrolls print less than 200K + the Unemployment Rate stays steady, or worse falls, the USD is expected to drop or more likely plateau as expectations on a 2015 Fed hike are already quite low.

With futures markets pricing in only a 16% chance that the Fed hikes in October and an equally dismal 43% that they move in December, anything that beats expectations is likely to have a greater impact on the USD than a miss.

USDX Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Stay safe out there.


On the Calendar Friday:
CNY Bank Holiday
AUD Retail Sales m/m
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

GBP Construction PMI

USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate


Chart of the Day:
Across into the realm of Commodities Trading for today’s chart of the day.

Oil Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

After speaking about oil trading last week, one week later and price is still capped by the descending trend line. We were looking for the market to find some sellers as price approached trend line resistance and then to find an opportunity to short as it fell through the marked zone.

The setup has now reached its now or never moment. Trade the reaction or let it go with sideways chop expected if the trend line isn’t able to break or hold with a momentum type move from here.

iwatch banner

Do you see opportunity in trading commodities such as the oil? Trade with Vantage FX and win an Apple iWatch!

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Risk Disclosure: In addition to the website disclaimer below, the material on this page prepared by Australian Forex Broker Vantage FX Pty Ltd, does not contain a record of our prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to trade Forex. All opinions, news, research, Forex analysis, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and marketing communication – not as investment advice. Consequently any person opening a Forex trading account and acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The experts writers express their personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. We always aim for maximum accuracy and timeliness and Vantage FX shall not be liable for any loss or damage, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the service and its content, inaccurate information or typos. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the report will be achieved, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.


Free Daily Market Update

Live Spreads



Sign up to the latest forex news and daily FX trading setups

Get started with a FREE $50,000 demo account