Morning View: RBA. Will They? | Vantage FX

Morning View: RBA. Will They?

April 7, 2015

Morning Recap:
So, what do you think?

Rising unemployment – check.
Slowing growth – check.
Commodity prices falling – check.

The cut is coming, but is it April or May? It’s tough for the RBA because they have to balance the above checklist with the risk of flaming the ever booming Sydney housing market if they cut too hard.

Markets have all but priced in a 0.25% cut, but the surveyed economists are tipping the RBA to hold off on the cut for one more month.

The way I’m looking at it is that a lot of the cut is already priced into currency markets. The trading opportunities will be in the market moving back to ‘fair’ if we get the unexpected. As always, keep it simple. Watch the major levels on your charts and manage your risk around them.

On the Calendar Today:
Although we have Retail Sales data to be released this morning from Australia, all eyes will be on the RBA rate decision later this afternoon.

For anyone trading the GBP, the services PMI data out of the UK is worth keeping an eye on, as well as any election related headlines.

AUD Retail Sales
AUD Cash Rate
AUD RBA Rate Statement

GBP Services PMI

Chart of the Day:
On RBA day, we have to take a look at the Aussie Dollar. We took a look at the AUD/USD chart in yesterday’s Morning View, so let’s take a look at some of the other AUD crosses.

AUD/NZD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

AUD/NZD has been racing towards parity over the last few weeks and got within 20 pips yesterday before buyers came in just above the major psych level.

This is an interesting spot heading into the cash rate decision because on the daily price has printed a bit of a doji candle which could add to buying confidence if the RBA decide to hold. On the other side, if the RBA cut, a single daily candle won’t make any difference.

AUD/JPY Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

I’ve zoomed right out to the weekly chart on AUD/JPY to show the channel support level that price is still poised on.

Once again, this is possibly a good level to see some downward momentum come through if we get a cut and start clearing some stops below the channel.

Are you expecting the RBA to cut or keep rates on hold for another month? Leave a comment below or mention @VantageFX on Twitter.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Risk Disclosure: In addition to the website disclaimer below, the material on this page prepared by Vantage FX Pty Ltd, does not contain a record of our tight spreads, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to trade. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and marketing communication – not as investment advice. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The experts writers express their personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. We always aim for maximum accuracy and timeliness and Vantage FX shall not be liable for any loss or damage, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the service and its content, inaccurate information or typos. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the report will be achieved, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.




Fast & Easy Account Opening Start Now!

  • Please enter a valid data!

  • Please enter a valid data!

  • Please enter a valid data!

  • Please enter a valid data!

  • Please enter a valid data!
Forex Promotions

Open a live account today to gain exclusive access to our 8 Forex Promotions. 

Find out more.