Morning View: RBA Holds Rates; Was it Leaked?

April 8, 2015

Morning Recap:
Was the cash rate leaked? That’s the question on everyone’s lips again today.

The seconds leading up to major news releases are often volatile times, with big players unwinding positions or trying to get things on ahead of the pack. Moves before the fact can often be explained and you can confidently leave your tin-foil hats tucked away in the draw under your desk.

But… We’re now at the THIRD rate decision in a row where we haven’t just gotten volatility leading into the announcement, but sustained buying before the release. Most importantly, in the right direction each time.

The above AUD/USD tick chart shows that buyers came in nearly ten whole seconds before the release and then sustained their bid throughout.

We’ll see what ASIC has to say again, but some serious questions need to be asked around how the RBA conducts their releases.

Maybe don’t bury those tin-foil hats too deeply in the draw just yet…

On the Calendar Today:
The main event on today’s calendar is the Bank of Japan’s 2 day policy meeting finishing up. We get a statement on monetary policy and then a few hours later, a press conference with Kuroda.

Expectation is for nothing new in terms of policy, but more easing is still expected in the future so watch for any shocks.

JPY Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BOJ Press Conference

USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Chart of the Day:
Another double up of charts this morning. Two charts that have been dragged down hard by USD strength but recent domestic events have made sure that they still have their own personalities.

EUR/USD 4 Hourly:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

AUD/USD 4 Hourly:
Click on chart to see a larger view.
I found it interesting comparing the EUR/USD and AUD/USD 4 hourly charts this morning.

The ascending triangle on EUR/USD first caught my eye, with price pushing through short term support over night and now resting on the trend line. Price has already broken out of the marked downward channel and this could be an opportunity for the Euro to find some buyers.

Comparing this with a post-RBA AUD/USD chart, there are plenty of similarities. Price has also broken out of it’s downward channel, but sitting on the underside of an already broken shorter term up sloping trend line. Price is really stuck in a range down here and is going to find it a lot harder to make gains compared to EUR/USD.

Let us know what you watching or trading? Leave a comment below or mention @VantageFX on Twitter.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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