Morning View: Let’s go Shopping

May 14, 2015

Morning View:
Last night’s big news was a disappointing miss in retail sales which heaped more pressure on an already shaky USD.

With the disappointing numbers coming one after the other, do you believe the data or the Fed? Slow wage growth has surely contributed to yesterday’s retail sales stagnation and again more questions will be asked on whether the Fed will actually go ahead with rate hikes this calendar year.

Print this and put it on your wall:


Most pundits are still throwing their support behind a 2015 rate hike on the back of an expected Q3 and 4 pickup, but if you’re a USD bull then the ground underneath you is getting a little more shaky with each dud release.


On the Calendar Today:
The early morning Retail Sales release out of New Zealand saw a beat in expectations and the Kiwi catch a bid as a result. The rest of the calendar is void of any tier 1 data so expect a quiet one in terms of event risk.

France, Switzerland and Germany have today off in observance of Ascension Day then we get some big US releases later in the evening.

NZD Retail Sales (2.7% v expected 1.6%)

EUR Bank Holiday
USD Unemployment Claims


Chart of the Day:
Yesterday we posted a possible USD/CAD long setup in the Technical Analysis section of the Vantage FX News Centre. Let’s take a look at what happened last night after US retail sales were the latest disappointment to a market anticipating a ‘data dependent’ Fed.

USD/CAD Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Price has now touched our demand zone 3 times. The more it touches, the more the buyers run out of steam. A break through the bottom here and it could be good night on the trade idea.

USD/CAD 5 Minute:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Zooming down to a 5 minute chart, it was nice to see price spike as hard as it did off the bottom of the zone and retrace it’s whole news spike… three times!

Let us know what you’re watching or trading? Leave a comment below or mention @VantageFX on Twitter.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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