Morning View: Exit Polls and Lead Data

May 8, 2015

Morning View:
First Exit Poll:
The first exit poll out of the UK this morning is pointing toward a Conservative win. The Pound obviously liked the sound of that, with continuation of current policy that I spoke about yesterday always a good thing.

GBP/USD 5 Minute:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Just remember that this huge ping up in GBP/USD is on the back of an EXIT POLL, not any actual vote counting. Exit polls have been very wrong in the past so buckle yourself in for some volatility as more actual news comes to hand.

Non-Farm Payrolls:
So earlier this week ADP missed expectations. Although a notoriously poor indicator for the NFP print, it still didn’t look good. We followed that release up last night with a nice beat in the Unemployment Claims number which maybe curbs a little bit of the ADP concerns.

Heading into tonight’s NFP number, for me the USD risk is to the upside. If the NFP prints a lot higher than expected, then USD could find it’s mojo again and we’ll see the majors start to resume their downward trends.

Anyway, run a few scenarios and form your own opinion based on where price is sitting on some of the higher time frame charts.


On the Calendar Today:
We have the RBA Monetary Policy Statement today. It should be an interesting one given that the market isn’t quite sure how to interpret the removal of an easing bias from the RBA. That is going to be the key sections of the statement that traders will be making decisions around.

AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
CNY Trade Balance

CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate


Chart of the Day:
With the Kiwi continuing to perform very poorly, we take a look at a few charts that are coming into key zones.

AUD/NZD Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Aussie Kiwi has been on a phenomenal tear since the talk of an AUD/NZD parity party, but price is now back into a zone that I would expect to see some profit taking kick in.

It’s a nice horizontal supply zone combined with upper channel resistance. The wicks on the daily candles at this stage are only showing indecision, but keep an eye on how this one plays out.

NZD/USD 4 Hourly:
Click on chart to see a larger view.
We’ve been talking about this one for a while and now is possibly the time to book some NZD/USD profits if you’ve been riding the pair short.

Fundamentally, the Kiwi side should remain fairly weak, but heading into NFP, there really isn’t any reason not to be at least looking to book something down here.

Let us know what you’re watching or trading? Leave a comment below or mention @VantageFX on Twitter.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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