Morning View: Bank of Japan Day

May 22, 2015

Morning View:
Good Morning from the Vantage FX offices in a dreary Sydney. I hope the weather where you’re reading from is a little nicer than what we’re battling here.

We see the Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference on the calendar today during the Asian session and as always, it’s a tentative release scheduled for after the meeting has concluded. Like the rest of Finance Twitter, you too can draw your own conclusions as to whether a longer meeting means a possible rumoured upgrade to Japan’s economic outlook which would diminish the chance of further QE and see the Yen receive a boost.

Having a look at the GBP/JPY chart ahead of the release, price is poised nicely for a move either way. One of those charts that shows how closely intertwined technicals are with the fundamentals that push the major levels.

GBP/JPY Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Price is sitting nicely at the key daily swing high resistance level from November 2014.

On this blog, I have have previously talked about how the British election result kicked the pair off it’s major trend line and after that flag resistance that price re-tested as support price hasn’t even paused on the way to the highs we sit at now.

GBP/JPY Hourly:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Zooming into the Hourly chart, price is trending up in a tight channel which it currently is sitting at the top of. Yes there is still room to push the upper bounds of the channel and have it still hold, but combined with the swing high I would rather be a seller than buyer up here.

In play if the BOJ statement reveals nothing new.


On the Calendar Today:
Heading into the weekend we have a whole host of central bankers speakers in Portugal on a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking titled “Inflation and Unemployment in Europe”. I’m not really sure what could possibly be said to move markets here, but it’s another piece of event risk heading into the weekend if you want to play it safe.

JPY Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BOJ Press Conference

EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
EUR German Ifo Business Climate
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

CAD Core CPI m/m
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks


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Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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