Late stock sell off drags Aussie below 94 cents | Vantage FX

Late stock sell off drags Aussie below 94 cents

September 25, 2013

Short and Sweet today as I am at Nadi Airport on the way home from a wonderful Family vacation – two weeks in this wonderful nation that is Fiji are worth a months holiday anywhere else.

Data in the US was a little mixed with the Case Shiller House price index up 12.4% yoy as expected up from 12.1% last but consumer confidence fell to 79.7 from 81.8 last so stocks in the US were up initially but have been unable to hold onto gains probably as the Senate debates the Federal Budget.

So at the close the Dow was closing on its lows down 66 points or 0.43% at 15327 off an intraday high of 15434. The Nasdaq rose 0.07% and the S&P fell 5 points to 1697 for a loss of 0.28% but 10 full points off the high of thee day. Stocks in Europe missed the late afternoon selloff and had a positive day but US confidence looks to have weighed initially before a recovery. In London the FTSE closed up 0.21%, the DAX rose 0.34% and the CAC was 0.57% higher. In Milan stocks rose 0.85% while in Madrid stocks were 0.64% higher.

Just quickly on the S&P 500

We’ve been talking about the normal way my system works and thee support that markets usually find around my fast movinf average – as I write at 5.55am Sydney time (7.55 Nadi time) the S&P is retesting this support and looks to be rolling over when I add in the MACD histogram.

My sense now is that stocks have topped for this run and will head to 1677 probably 1641 trendline support.

German IFO increased in September to a 17 month high of 107.7 but undershot expectations of a rise to 108.2. Interestingly the “current assessment” actually fell which accords with the manufacturing PMI data a night ago so Germany might be having a soft patch.

The IFO and comments from ECB boss Mario Draghi a day ago which were echoed by Ewald Nowotny of the ECB about continuing stimulus in the EU the Euro lower (1.3490) and contributed to overall USD strength which also dragged the Aussie dollar (0.9398) back below 94 cents. However the moves were really marginal with USDJPY sitting at 98.90 and Sterling at 1.6006.

Aussie Dollar a day or two behind stocks

I’m targeting a test of the fast moving average for the dailies on the Aussie which comes in at 0.9311 today.  Same system as that articulated over the last few days and in the S&P 500 chart and process above.

On Commodity markets gold fell a little again but sits around the $1325 oz region, Nymex crude is at $103.45 Bbl while Copper lost a few cents to $3.27 lb. On the Ags Corn dropped 0.94%, Wheat rose 0.69% and Soybeans were up 0.32%.

Closer to home at 5.40am Sydney time the SPI futures on the Sydney Futures exchange were up a few points at 5245 while the 3 and 10 year bond contract were up 4 and 4,5 points respectively reflecting the moves in US and global interest rates overnight.

On the data front today we get Kiwi trade data, the RBA’s Financial Stability Review which will be interesting in the context of whether they say anything about Bank lending standards and then tonight Gfk Consumer Confidence and import prices in Germany, French Business Climate and Durable Goods orders in the US along with Mortgage applications and New Home Sales.

Have a great day and good hunting





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