Je suis Paris

November 16, 2015

Je suis Paris:
I see quotes in articles around the internet being written this morning saying analysts and markets are almost de-sensitised to the sorts of attacks that we saw in Paris over the weekend. While a sad state of affairs for the society we now live in, this is how it is and we have to get on with it.

Learning from past attacks, for example most recently in London, we didn’t get the sustained equity or Forex risk sell-off that could possibly have been expected. Markets were jumpy yes, but while I’m not there yet, unfortunately financial markets it seems have become de-sensitised to these sorts of world events and I’m expecting only short term volatility and falls when European markets come online tonight, before a possibly snap back as normal service is resumed.

EUR/USD 1 Minute:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

A 30 pip gap down on EUR/USD really isn’t anything to write home about and although we’re still seeing some follow through, I think that initial move is quite telling in terms of de-sensitised market psyche following the weekend’s events.

As much as the headlines will tell you otherwise, the major market moving theme is still monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and whether December is actually in play or not. This week’s calendar sees a whole raft of USD sensitive, tier 1 news including inflation on Wednesday and FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday. Attention will soon turn back to the Fed, potentially undoing any panic driven moves from early in the week in a single trading session.

All I can say from here is make sure your major levels are marked and your position sizing is appropriate to start the week. Keep an eye on the Technical Analysis section of the Vantage FX News Centre throughout the week as we focus on some major levels that Forex, indices and commodities markets are all heading into.


On the Calendar Monday:
NZD Retail Sales q/q
JPY Prelim GDP q/q

EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m


Chart of the Day:
With USD/CAD pushing toward its swing highs, the pair comes back into play.

USD/CAD Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Although gapping down at open, USD/CAD has still pushed into our marked supply zone. While not actually reaching the high, price has still pushed into the zone with a lack of momentum which is giving the faders something to think about.

With the gap down helping to exaggerate the lack of momentum, any weak push back up could be viewed as an opportunity to sell weakness. Keep an eye on the @VantageFX Twitter as we take a look at some lower time frame charts throughout Monday as price action evolves from here.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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