Headline Expectations in USDX and Oil

August 12, 2016

In an interview with the Washington Post overnight, San Francisco Fed President John Williams gave his point of view on why the Fed should raise interest rates in 2016.

So, just cutting to the chase here, does that gradual path of rate increases include any this year, in your view?

“In my view, it does.”

Now while Williams is actually a non-voter on this years Fed policy setting panel, Yellen was his boss at the San Francisco Fed before she moved into the top job back in 2010. This means that their views are likely to come from a similar line of thought, so are watched more carefully than any other non-voter.

USDX Daily:
160812_usdx_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

But the US Dollar has heard these sorts of remarks before and didn’t really react to the headline.

No real trading opportunity developing from this one, but worth noting how certain factions within the Fed are thinking nonetheless.

On the other hand, one headline that has moved markets was in Oil. The Saudi Arabian Oil Minister said that OPEC members MAY discuss action that may be required to stabilise the price of Oil during INFORMAL meetings set down for September.

Oil 15 Minute:
160811_oil_15minute
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Ping! …and Oil goes vertical on the day.

I’ll leave it up to you to determine in which direction the biggest chance of disappointing the market lies. The Saudi’s certainly do have a certain history after-all.

Oil Daily:
160811_oil_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

The bearish channel here on the daily chart is a little bit subjective due to price breaking out of the bottom, but the marked starting points of the channel are too clean to not take notice.

There’s a bit of market sensitive news on the economic calendar tonight, so make sure you have your News Terminal on the screen next to your charts and protect your account heading into the weekend.

Enjoy!

———

On the Calendar Friday:
NZD Retail Sales q/q
CNY Industrial Production y/y

EUR German Prelim GDP q/q

USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD PPI m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Make the switch to a live Forex account with Vantage FX today.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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