EU Withdrawal Process Pounds the Pound

October 4, 2016

Back from the Australian Labour Day holiday long weekend (Come on you Sharkies!), but with no time to relax in the current market, we’re straight back into the major storylines of the week.

GBP/USD dropped to three-decade lows set in the post-Brexit bloodbath, as new UK Prime Minister set a date to formally withdraw from the EU. With the first quarter of 2017 now set in stone, Cable had some of those panic memories re-ignited and was hit hard once again.

We last week talked about the key GBP/USD level which we’ve kept marked on the Cable daily chart below, and the re-test and failure at this level exaggerated the move lower:

GBP/USD Daily:
161004_gbpusd_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

You can see price on the daily at the lows and the move away from that marked level making things look even more shaky.

Just keep in mind that every man and his dog are now short Cable and that while many questions around just how the UK is going to go about the leaving process and what that’s going to mean for business and trade, having set a deadline is a huge step forward in clearing some of the uncertainty that is the main cloud hanging over the Pound.

With new trade deals will come confidence that things aren’t as bad as a sensationalist media and persistent, agenda driven political left is talking. Things will start to fall into place and a short covering rally could very quickly Spur Cable to range highs to begin.

Keep thinking outside the box and where the biggest risk of a re-pricing may lie.

EUR/GBP Daily:
161004_eurgbp_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

EUR/GBP is the same on an inverted scale, and if you zoom out on your own MT4 charts and take a look at the weekly, you can see just how important the current zone that price is pushing up into is.

On the Australian calendar, we get Governor Philip Lowe’s first RBA meeting and the market is expecting no change to the current 1.5% cash rate.

Before the big decision out of Martin Place, we do however have Australian building approvals (and tier 3 ANZ job ads if you’re really keen), but neither are expected to have much of an impact on the price of the Aussie with the RBA barely a few hours later.

AUD/USD Daily:
161004_audusd_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

The Aussie is making another run at that resistance after a very shallow 75 or so pip pullback highlighting the control that the bulls have on this market at the moment.

With the RBA now less likely to cut rates as well as the continued failures of the Fed, we’ve been playing for this breakout for a while and that price action featuring a shallow retrace into short term support followed by an immediate rip back through resistance is very promising if you’re an Aussie bull.

Enjoy the week and best of probabilities in your trading!

———

On the Calendar Monday:
CNY Bank Holiday
AUD Building Approvals m/m
NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
AUD Cash Rate
AUD RBA Rate Statement

GBP Construction PMI

Take advantage of trading opportunities on a Vantage FX RAW ECN trading account – Start today!

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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