ECB Tonight

September 8, 2016

With the ECB meeting later tonight, all eyes turn to Frankfurt and how Mario Draghi will spin the low inflation environment that the EU continues to find itself in.

We know that the EU economy is struggling under chronically low inflation numbers and Euro traders are eagerly awaiting what policy moves that Draghi has left up the long white sleeve of his immaculately tailored business shirt!

Pumping money into the economy via the bank’s bond buying program hasn’t given the uptick that Draghi and his men were looking for, and any alterations to the program will be what traders tonight are hanging out to hear.

EUR/USD Weekly:
160908_eurusd_weekly
Click on chart to see a larger view.

EUR/USD Daily:
160908_eurusd_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

From a technical point of view, EUR/USD wants to bounce. Price is in the middle of a weekly range and has been printing higher lows on the daily chart.

Will Draghi give it the kick?

Moving forward and we yesterday asked the question would the ISM manufacturing miss mean no rate hike from the Fed?

Midway through the Asian session, we then started to see some quotes hitting the newswires from the Fed’s Williams:


How unconvincing. A sentiment that the US Dollar obviously agrees with, coming nowhere near to retracing the ISM news drop, and more than likely bouncing on the technical level rather than the comments.

USDX Daily:
160908_usdx_daily
Click on chart to see a larger view.

With USD where it currently sits, if Draghi comes to the party tonight we could see a serious EUR/USD bounce.

———

On the Calendar Thursday:
AUD Trade Balance

EUR Minimum Bid Rate
EUR ECB Press Conference

USD Unemployment Claims
USD Crude Oil Inventories

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Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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