Downgrade retail sales dragged USD after it reached the 100 milestone

March 13, 2015

USD Index successfully reached the 100 mark once again as it refreshed 12-year high. However, shortly after the Dollar touched that millstone, it fell quickly back to 99.50 as Euro led other majors to rebound against Dollar.

The US retail sales data that was significantly lower than forecast, triggered profit taking from the bulls of Dollar. February reading was a 0.6% contraction instead of the expected 0.3% expansion. The job market data is still strong, limiting the falling of USD. The weekly unemployment claims for last week slid to 289K vs. expected 305K.

Euro Dollar once slumped to 1.05, but later bounced back to 1.0630 during the rest session. The German central bank president questioned the QE program again yesterday and claimed that the Eurozone economy has started to recover and that there’s no need for further stimulus. Yesterday’s rebound is the largest rally in a month, but it still can’t reverse the bearish trend yet. The short-term outlook of EURUSD is still negative.

EURUSD 130315 | Vantage FX

Pound performed weak yesterday as the BOE governor Carney implied that they may delay their first interest rate raising. The dovish statement suppressed the sterling. GBPUSD tried to climb back beyond 1.50 but failed. It formed a double-top in H4 chart and then tumbled more than 100 pips to 1.4880 this morning. The bearish short-run trend is confirmed and the next target may be the 1.4813 support.

GBPUSD 130315 | Vantage FX

Back to stock markets, Shanghai Composite surged 1.78% to 3349 inspired by the rally of bank shares. The Nikkei Stock Average climbed 1.43% as well. Australian ASX 200 gained 0.98% to 5850. In European markets, the UK FTSE gained 0.59%, the German DAX lost 0.1% and the French CAC Index slid 0.21%. The US stocks fell as poor retail sales cooled down the rate hike speculation. The S&P 500 closed 1.26% higher at 2066. The Dow surged 1.47% to 17895, and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.89% to 4893.

On the data front, US PPI and Canada Employment Change will be out at 23:30 pm AEDST. US UoM Consumer Sentiment will be out at 2 am tomorrow.

Have a great trading day!
Anthony


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