Consumer Driven Recovery + New Lows in Oil

August 14, 2015

Consumer Driven Recovery:
Last night saw US Dollar bulls make a return, with US Retail Sales data coming in largely as expected.

“USD Core Retail Sales m/m (0.4% v 0.4% expected)”

“USD Retail Sales m/m (0.6% v 0.6% expected)”

Last month’s number revised up to 0.4% from -0.1% previously provided the kicker that the USDX needed after this week’s uncertainty out of China.

But right now, the average American consumer isn’t letting the global turbulence turn them off heading to the mall as they at least do their part for economic growth. It’s easier when the people do the work for you, isn’t it Janet!

Asian Session View:
Focus will stay on markets during today’s Asian Session with RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent due to deliver a speech titled “Recent Labour Market Developments” at the Economic Society of Australia’s 2015 Business Lunch in Brisbane today.

It seems that markets have started to settle on the back of yesterday’s PBOC comments around the direction of the Yuan. Today’s fix numbers aren’t expected to provide the volatility we’ve seen over the last three days, the first time it has done so in more than two decades! Just stay aware.

Really last night was classic Northern Hemisphere summer trading. Tight ranges, no crazy moves. Something that many traders who have taken their annual holidays had been expecting but not something we’ve seen a lot of on the back of the glut of volatility fueled by uncertainty. I know a few who are kicking themselves over missing out!

Oil Daily:
oil2
Click on chart to see a larger view.

With Vantage FX rejuvenating our Commodities Trading section of the website, I just wanted to include this oil chart showing price breaking down into new lows.

Are you taking advantage of these moves in commodities?

———-

On the Calendar Friday:
NZD Retail Sales (0.1% v 0.5% expected)
AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks

EUR Greek Gov Debt Crisis Vote
EUR German Prelim GDP

CAD Manufacturing Sales
USD PPI
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

———-

Chart of the Day:
With some early morning tier one data out of New Zealand to begin our Friday during the Asian Session, we turn our attention to the Kiwi.

“NZD Retail Sales q/q (0.1% v 0.5% expected)”

NZD/USD 4 Hourly:
nu4
Click on chart to see a larger view.

After disappointing retail sales out of New Zealand, NZD/USD has resumed its bearish trend and started to push back towards the bottom of the short term range we have marked here.

As we’ve discussed previously, the fact that you should trade with the trend after news like this is no coincidence. Why swim against the tide if you don’t have to?

What are your thoughts on trading NZD/USD? Mention @VantageFX on Twitter, leave a comment on our Facebook Page or simply leave a reply below.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Risk Disclosure: In addition to the website disclaimer below, the material on this page prepared by Australian forex broker Vantage FX Pty Ltd, does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to trade. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and marketing communication – not as investment advice. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The experts writers express their personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. We always aim for maximum accuracy and timeliness and Vantage FX shall not be liable for any loss or damage, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the service and its content, inaccurate information or typos. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the report will be achieved, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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