Calm before the storm, for Fed's "patience" | Vantage FX

Calm before the storm, be patient for the “patience”

March 18, 2015

The FX market calmed down before the FOMC meeting, which will be held tomorrow morning Australian time. The USD index is moving around 100 as bets on stronger USD were only partially closed. The main forecast is still expecting Fed will delete ‘patience’ in the statement and pave the way for rate hike at June. However, the major risk now is Fed’s concern on the aspect that strong Dollar will pare the US economic recovery as recent data is not that satisfactory, except for the job market. In that case, we will see a major retreat of the Dollar, and the bulls shall realize that risk.

Euro Dollar rebounded to 1.0650 among the profit-taking orders, but still closed below 1.06 at this early morning. The pair will probably remain sideways in a limited range before the FOMC statement. 1.0760 and 1.05 are the critical levels of EURUSD.

Aussie Dollar remained at its weakness and followed the bearish trendline formed since 0.7850. 0.76 will be the temporary support for this currency pair in the Asian trading hours.

Gold prices slumped to $1142 per ounce shortly after a 3000-lot short order raged the market. The bulls reversed the whole loss later but finally gave up the $1160. The prices closed at around $1150. Although US dollar has showed some extent of weakness, gold prices were not supported by this effect. The bullishness of global stock markets is the main reason suppressing the gold. The yellow metals keep within the bearish channel and see no sign of buying orders to support the gold prices.

Back to stock markets, Shanghai Composite surged 1.55% to 3503, refreshed 7 years high. The Nikkei Stock Average gained 1% as well. Australian ASX 200 rebounded 0.77% to 5842. In European markets, the UK FTSE climbed 0.49%, the German DAX retreated 1.54% and the French CAC Index also lost 0.64%. The US stock indices were mixed before the FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 closed 0.35% lower at 2074. The Dow fell 0.71% to 17849, and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.16% to 4937.

On the data front, Bank of England will release its March meeting minutes at 20:30 pm AEDST along with the job market data. Fed will release their March monetary policy, which will attract all the focus at 5 am tomorrow morning AEDST.

Have a great trading day!

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