Australian Employment Data Dud:
“AUD Employment Change (-7.9K v 12.9K expected)”
“AUD Unemployment Rate (6.0% v 5.8% expected)”
Both Australian employment growth and the unemployment rate missed expectations for January yesterday, sending the Aussie sharply lower on the release.
— Vantage FX (@VantageFX) February 18, 2016
But the unreliable nature of the Australian Bureau of Statistics release which even the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens has publicly discounted in the past, saw the Aussie hold firm after the initial knee jerk drop.
“If we accept the labour force data – let’s discount them to some extent perhaps for the quality issues.”
– RBA Governor Glenn Stevens last Friday.
Whether you trust the number or not, the fact is that the Aussie held firm in the face of a horrible headline. There are plenty of buyers happy to hold the market up where we are.
Yesterday’s AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart of the Day is technically untouched as price stuck to a tight daily range but playing from the long side seems the safer option.
While they may not publicly make it clear, the RBA always has a lingering balancing act between domestic issues and worrying what the Fed’s next move will be. The extreme pricing out of any further interest rate hikes by the Fed in 2016 could come back to hurt Aussie longs if the Fed decides to ‘shock’ markets and continue at full steam ahead. San Francisco Fed President John Williams has today printed headlines that the economy is still “looking pretty good” after all.
On which side of AUD/USD do you see the greatest risk of sharp re-pricing?
Chart of the Day:
One theme that we’ve stayed away from on the blog has been that of a British exit from the European Union (the Brexit). UK Prime Minister Cameron has been in Switzerland talking with EU officials about how best to deal with growing discontent for the common union at home.
The process that feels like it has been in motion forever has still actually barely begun but this is going to be a huge story in the coming months.
Cable has started to curve upward at channel support, forming a flag in the process. The fact that on the 4 hour we have seen price re-test and find buyers as wicks search back into the previous area of consolidation is a huge bullish sign and further technical upside is expected from here.
On the Calendar Friday:
GBP Retail Sales m/m
CAD Core CPI m/m
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD CPI m/m
USD Core CPI m/m
Dane Williams – @VantageFX
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