Aussie Resistance Broken, Euro to Head the Opposite?

October 20, 2016

First of all, good morning from a ‘fresh’ (read: freezing cold) Canberra!

Back in the Sydney office tomorrow with my full suite of charts and time frames at my fingertips, but today’s chart offering stays at a high level and relies on you doing some of your own work. Shock horror in the retail forex trading industry I know, but if you want to make it, you need to think for yourself.

Straight into it and yesterday we spoke about the Chinese numbers having the potential to blow the AUD/USD resistance level out of the water.

Externally at least, with the Chinese economy showing good signs of growth in line with government targets, expectations were met and the Aussie was the big benefactor.

Now I’ve been a huge skeptic of Chinese data releases, with of course the planned economy having the ability to give the market what they want to hear. But as traders, does this matter?

The answer is of course no. All we should worry about in terms of these numbers is how the market perceives them in line with their own expectations and pricing.

This is a little harder with Chinese numbers as we always look to trade the Aussie Dollar for its liquidity over any of the CNH pairs.

AUD/USD Higher Time Frame:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

As you can see, the Aussie has FINALLY broken through this resistance level. Ironic that it took Chinese GDP to get it done I guess.

Employment change and the unemployment rate this morning key to see if any domestic weakness can shift sentiment from the longs. My thoughts are that if it beats, we will continue higher no problems, but it will take one almighty miss to turn the market bearish.

EUR/USD Higher Time Frame:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

We finish the night off with the conclusion of the two day ECB policy meeting. The question here as always is will they further their stimulus program?

Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that they will simply prolong their €1.7 trillion bond-buying program in December. Something that probably wont have the whipsawing effect of past ECB meetings but with the Euro hanging precariously on higher time frame support, there are still plenty of risks here.

Best of probabilities in today’s trading day and we’ll see you across the Vantage FX social media channels.


On the Calendar Thursday
AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate

GBP Retail Sales m/m
EUR Minimum Bid Rate

EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD Unemployment Claims

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Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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