11.30 am Sydney time sees the release of two hugely important data releases out of Australia:
AUD Employment Change: 15.2K expected.
AUD Unemployment Rate: 5.7% expected.
The employment change number shows the change in the number of employed people during August, while the unemployment rate shows the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during August.
This excerpt is from NAB who are expecting a 22K employment change print and a steady unemployment rate:
“There’s no obvious risk tilt from sample rotation issues but there is likely to be some further flow on from workers hired to complete the Census (as was the case for July). A 22K print for employment is a little stronger than required to keep the unemployment rate steady; our pick is for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.7 per cent.”
Taking a look at the daily AUD/USD chart, we can see that price is coiling up insider this triangle pattern and has quickly found itself back at support after a week or so of falls.
At higher time frame support, the technicals are backing up the above call for a slightly better than expected data print and would most likely see the Aussie Dollar rally if this came to fruition.
The intraday Aussie chart shows after having bounced off higher time frame support, price came back to re-test where price was first halted. If you’re the type of day trader that likes to wait for confirmation on support/resistance levels holding, then this could be your ticket for taking longs.
Something else to keep in mind heading into this morning’s Australian employment data is the issue of trust surrounding the release. You can see my thoughts on why to traders that it doesn’t even matter, in that blog post from back in January.
Keep an eye on on the Vantage FX News Centre as we take a look at GBP/USD in further detail heading into tonight’s Bank of England decision.
On the Calendar Thursday:
CNY Bank Holiday: Chinese banks will be closed in observance of the Mid-Autumn Festival;
NZD GDP q/q
AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
CHF Libor Rate
CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
GBP Retail Sales m/m
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD PPI m/m
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD Retail Sales m/m
USD Unemployment Claims
Yikes. What isn’t on the calendar today?!
Dane Williams – @VantageFX
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