Asian Session Morning: Unemployment Ticks Down and Tankers Sail

July 17, 2015

Unemployment Ticks Down:
Filings for US unemployment benefits declined overnight, potentially giving the Fed yet more ammunition to begin hiking interest rates as early as September. Jobless claims came in at 281K v the 284K expected and while not a huge beat, it’s definitely good news for Dollar Bulls.

However, in yesterday’s testimony, Yellen pointed out that although the unemployment rate is at a 7 year low, there are still fewer part time workers who want to be employed on a full time basis and that this is an area that would improve if the labour market was in better shape.

“Too many people are not searching for a job but would likely do so if the labor market was stronger.”

The other tier 1 release out of the US overnight was the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which fell to 5.7 against expectations of 11.9 but better than expected labour market data trumps manufacturing anytime.

Iran, Oil and the Bank of Canada
In case you missed it yesterday, we took a look at what the Iranian Nuclear Deal will mean for the price of Oil and Commodity driven currencies such as the Canadian Dollar.

I thought it was interesting to see today’s photo of an Iranian Oil tanker leaving port on the CNBC Twitter feed.

irantanker

With supply starting to hit the market, it’s an intriguing time to be trading Oil!

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On the Calendar Friday:
AUD CB Leading Index (0.2% v -0.3% previously)

CAD Core CPI
USD Building Permits
USD CPI
USD Core CPI
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

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Chart of the Day:
We today take another look at the AUD/JPY broken channel that we have been watching.

AUD/JPY Weekly:
aj2
Click on chart to see a larger view.

On the AUD/JPY Weekly chart, price has broken through major channel support and is once again re-testing previous trend line support now as resistance.

AUD/JPY 4 Hourly:
aj3
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Zooming into the 4 hourly, this is potentially the 3rd re-test of the broken level which many traders see as the ‘kiss of death’.

For me, the level is active until it’s not, and any low momentum pushes into this area are prime shorts.

Do you trade forex on Mac? Let us know by leaving a comment below or mention @VantageFX on Twitter.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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