Asian Session Morning: Generic ‘Last Attempt Fails’ Greek Headline

June 15, 2015

Last Attempt:
Generic Greek headlines still dominate early news feeds with Greece refusing to budge on the IMF’s demands for more pension and wage cuts. I highly recommend doing a Google Images search of Athens street art. Some amazing pieces depicting the grass roots issues that the nation is facing on the back of the European saga.

European leaders were scathing of Athens as they blamed the collapse of talks on their failure to budge on demands. Something that all sides knew was the sticking point so for me it is crazy to see markets gapping down on this sort of thing.

Markets are reading into the ‘last attempt failed’ quote, but seriously how many last attempts have we already had? Nothing has changed with Greece still needing to repay 1.6 billion Euros to the IMF by the end of June. The next major meeting will involve Eurozone finance ministers on Thursday so we’ll see you then…

EUR/USD Daily:
eu9
Click on chart to see a larger view.

EUR/USD Hourly:
eu10
Click on chart to see a larger view.

The gap down is out of the sell zone we have been watching on Twitter. Technicals always in play.

FOMC Week:
It’s all about the lead in to FOMC later in the week with a rate hike in play for the first time. It’s a long shot, but with the Fed speaking about raising rates gradually and the data they need all there, it’s not unthinkable.

Either way, it’s still all about how the Fed words their statement for clues on just when the hikes will begin. Risk is to the downside for USD with expectations most likely to keep the USD bid as we head into the meeting.

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On the Calendar Today:
Nothing but Greek headlines during the Asian Session to start your Monday morning. Yes, the same headlines that have been flicking up and reworked for months on end are still chopping the markets about. Take them with a pinch of salt and don’t get sucked into changing your directional bias because the next headline is just as likely to chop you back the opposite direction.

Tier 1 data tonight comes out of Canada with Manufacturing Sales data. We also have Draghi speaking to keep things interesting.

There’s a few tier 2 releases out of the US including the Empire State Manufacturing Index to keep an eye on, but it’s Draghi that will have the biggest impact on the USD pairs.

Monday:
CAD Manufacturing Sales
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

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Chart of the Day:
On Friday morning, we took a look at Gold with a post in the Technical Analysis section of the Vantage FX News Centre. Here is a little excerpt from that post.

Gold Weekly:
gold1
Click on chart to see a larger view.

As you can see on the weekly, the 2011 ‘bubble’ burst and we have retraced back to a key zone of interest for both buyers and sellers over the years.

Gold 4 Hourly:
gold2
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Zooming in a little closer and taking a look at the 4 hour chart, we have an actionable setup where we can clearly define our risk.

Still inside the weekly zone, price has broken a short term trend line and then was rejected when trying to retest the broken level now as resistance. This retested level, as well as the 4 hour swing high just above give great risk:reward to play this setup from the short side.

I’m a fan of increasing your risk:reward by trying to get into trades before the pack enters on a breakout and I go into my thought process a little deeper in that post.

Let us know what you’re watching or trading? Leave a comment below or mention @VantageFX on Twitter.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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