Asian Session Morning: Default

July 1, 2015

Default:
With Eurozone finance ministers refusing to budge on any last minute extensions of the Greek bailout program, Greece this morning became the first ‘advanced economy’ to default and is the first country to miss an IMF loan payment since Zimbabwe in 2001. Not exactly illustrious company there.

From The Associated Press this morning:

“BREAKING: Greece’s international bailout formally expires, country loses access to existing financing.”

“BREAKING: IMF confirms debt due by Greece has not been paid, Greece officially in arrears.”

“MORE: IMF: Greece misses $1.8 billion payment, becomes first advanced economy to default on IMF loan.”

Ratings agency Fitch, slashed Greece’s already junk status from CCC to CC. With some debate and questions still about on what officially constitutes an official ‘default’, this CC rating is only a single notch above the level where the ratings agency says default is inevitable.

“The breakdown of the negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors has significantly increased the risk that Greece will not be able to honour its debt obligations in the coming months, including bonds held by the private sector.”

EUR/USD Hourly:
eu3
Click on chart to see a larger view.

The Euro received an injection of end of month short covering after it’s questionable rally to open the week, pulling back to the 50% fib level of the move. I still think that this could have more to run on the long side but I can’t play it with conviction so I’ll step aside again.

All we can now do is wait for the Greek referendum on their presence in the Eurozone and go from there.

———-

On the Calendar Today:
A busy one on the data front today with a flood of news releases throughout the 3 major sessions.

Also wishing a happy Canada Day to all our Canadian traders out there. Enjoy your day off!

Wednesday:
CNY Manufacturing PMI
AUD Building Approvals
CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

EUR Eurogroup Meetings
GBP Manufacturing PMI
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

CAD Bank Holiday
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

———-

Chart of the Day:
We couldn’t pass up having a look at USD/CAD on Canada day, could we?

USD/CAD Daily:
uc3
Click on chart to see a larger view.

The daily chart has price testing and at least starting to break out of it’s short term flag and possibly resuming it’s major bullish trend. I say starting to break out because the long wicks at the previous test of this level shows that sellers will look to take back control in this zone.

USD/CAD Hourly:
uc4
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Drilling down to the hourly chart, the short term structure of the break out was very textbook with a break out of resistance followed by a retest of previous resistance as support before price took off.

At this stage, it’s a setup to add to your trading journal and a pattern to keep an eye on for next time.

Did you manage to take this excellent long USD/CAD trade? Let us know by leaving a comment below or mention @VantageFX on Twitter.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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