A Forex Trader’s Brexit Referendum Day Overview

June 23, 2016

June 23: Here we go!

Forex markets are poised high on a tightrope between risk and safety…

The aggregated GBP/USD RAW ECN spreads (no, not standard) at Vantage FX have widened out between 4 and 5 pips, and it’s only just struck midnight in the UK!

Everything Brexit related in the lead up that needed to be written, has been written already. Do a Brexit search through the Vantage FX News Centre (click that link to bring up all the preview commentary), but as we hit voting day there is only one thing that should be on your mind as traders:


Remember that Vantage FX have made the following temporary change in margin requirements and made a selection of currency pairs and indices close only.

Don’t get caught out making rash trading calls on a day you know is going to feature whipsawing price action and low liquidity. As a trader, you are primarily a risk manager, NOT a punter. Don’t throw your account away.

Now I’ve got that little spiel out of the way, the following table that we Tweeted this morning outlines the key referendum times that traders should make a note of if they are staying involved:

Furthermore, here are the Betfair odds for both Bremain and Brexit:

Betfair Brexit odds for remain

Betfair Brexit odds for leave

With there being so many different polls, all giving widely variable results, my eyes are on only the betting exchanges for clues as to which way the vote might swing.

You can see that the ‘remain’ vote has come right into a tight $1.30 favourite, while the price of leave has blown out to $4.10. While the price of a favourite who doesn’t win is meaningless, it does give you a few hints around the human psych of voters as voters start heading to the polls.

Next up we have the key Forex charts that are set to get wild:

GBP/USD Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

EUR/USD Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

EUR/GBP Daily:
Click on chart to see a larger view.

Cable and Fiber are gaining some momentum as the remain vote heads into the polls as a clear favourite. But as we’ve outlines above, this could change in a heartbeat and whipsawing is expected no matter the outcome.


On the Calendar Thursday:
There’s only one point of note on the economic calendar today… and it’s certainly not the US unemployment claims!

USD Unemployment Claims

Stay safe and for the sake of your long term trading account, don’t do anything stupid today!

Make the switch to true ECN Forex Broker Vantage FX today!

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Risk Disclosure: In addition to the website disclaimer below, the material on this page prepared by Forex broker Vantage FX Pty Ltd does not contain a record of our prices or solicitation to trade. All opinions, news, research, tools, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and marketing communication – not as investment advice. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The experts writers express their personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the Forex account of the reader. We always aim for maximum accuracy and timeliness, and FX broker Vantage FX shall not be liable for any loss or damage, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on this service and its content, inaccurate information or typos. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the report will be achieved, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.


Free Daily Market Update

Live Spreads



Sign up to the latest forex news and daily FX trading setups

Get started with a FREE $50,000 demo account