Housing Jitters Extend The Dow’s Losing Streak | May 18, 2011

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Swiss Franc recommenced its long term trend, with the greenback weakening against the safe haven currency

Good morning. Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday, with the major indices experiencing heightened volatility. Opening weaker, traders shifted from currencies and treasuries to equities late in the session. On the economic front, Housing Starts and Building Permits fell short of initial estimates with 523,000 for HS recorded. Building Permits were forecast to reach 590,000 for the April period. The figure was however significantly lower with 551,000 recorded. Across the atlantic, EU officials commented on the Greek debt situation, with Jean Claude Juncker noting the importance of economic stabilisation in the region. He did not rule out the potential for debt refinancing as Greece continues to struggle with the current austerity package. The market is eagerly watching the situation in Portugal and speculating over the economic impact the crisis is having on the small country.

On the equity market front, the S&P500 finished the session flat at 1329. Computer and Technology manufacturer Dell posted a significant rise in profits for the period, with the company recorded a net income of $945 million. This translated into a 134% rise in income. In other corporate news, HP posted a slight increase in profits for the period. The report however fell short of initial forecasts, pushing the stock 7% lower.

On the currency front, the Japanese Yen weakened against the greenback with markets factoring in a possible easing of monetary policy. Citing extended economic pressure from natural disasters and sluggish growth, the Bank of Japan was confident that long term deflation could be alleviated. This had the reverse effect on the pair, with traders moving out of the low yield currency and shifting into the riskier assets. Markets also eyed the potential for further debt worries in Europe and the impact this would have on the yen. The USDJPY traded at 81.36. Aussie dollar consolidated on Tuesday, with the currency reacting to further speculation over interest rates in Australia. The RBA have recently been analysing the housing and retail sales data, with the market cautious over the short term impact of a drop in property prices. Noosa, the Sunshine and Gold Coasts in Queensland have begun to show signs of weakness in the sector, with a significant contraction in housing prices. This could translate into a fall in the currency. The AUDUSD traded at 1.06225. Strong surge in the Euro on Tuesday, with interest rate speculation driving gains. The announcement that British inflation rose during the period, translated into a cross regional currency push. Economists expect a similar scenario in the Euro zone. Debt concerns were eased during the session, as Greece reaffirmed that they would be able to cover their short term debt obligations. Traders continue to be sceptical. The EURUSD traded late in the day at 1.4234.

Non Farm Payroll Data Beats Expectations | March 7, 2011

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Good morning. Energy commodities drove equity markets lower on Friday, with tensions in Libya continuing to press on supply. Non Farm Payroll Data released during the US session beat market estimates with 192,000 recorded for the Feb period. Initially, the market had factored in a rise of 185,000. The Unemployment rate corresponded to the jump in NFP with a contraction to 8.9%. This satisfied economic concerns. In other economic news, Factory Orders rose 3.1% for January. Concerns over the political situation in Libya and the Middle East continued to cause extended periods of volatility. President Obama announced that the US would be happy to begin utilising its own oil reserves, in an attempt to push the light crude price lower. This had limited effect with the futures closing at $104.91, up 2.4%. Economic news released in the US this week includes Consumer Credit (market expects $3.3 billion) on Monday, Wholesale Inventories (market expects 1.0%) on Wednesday, Trade Balance (market expects $41.5 billion deficit), Initial Claims (market expects 382,000) on Thursday, Retail Sales (market expects 1.0%), and Business Inventories (market expects 0.8%) on Friday.

On the equity market front, the S&P500 finished the Friday session on a weaker note with the Oil price pushing several sectors lower. The Airline industry continues to feel the effects of extended gains with Delta down 3.4% for the session. Retail Stocks will be in the spotlight this week with Urban Outfitters reporting quarterly earnings on Monday. Casey’s General Stores will also release earnings with the market factoring EPS of 50 cents for the period.

On the currency front, the Aussie dollar weakened considerably when Non Farm Payrolls were released on friday. With the market factoring in 185,000 NFP for the period, the result led to a temporary rise in the greenback. Recent comments from the RBA also helped support the AUD, with speculation that monetary policy would be tightened in April. Economists have been cautious in their estimates with recent currency gains impacting the local service and manufacturing sectors. The AUDUSD traded at 1.0126.  The Japanese Yen consolidated on Friday with Non Farm Payroll data pushing the currency lower early in the session. Announcing a fall in the unemployment rate, the Labour Department was decisive in their 12 month forecasting. With a sharp swing in volatility during the morning session, the USDJPY reacted the news and found support at 82.28. Traders continue to speculate over the BOJ reaction to the recent currency movements and whether deflation will continue to influence intervention measures and monetary stance. Housing figures in the UK had little impact on the currency with the GBPUSD rising to 1,6210. Reacting positively to ECB comments, the market continued to factor in a rate rise in the UK in the coming months. Recent strong retail sales data and local growth forecasts have supported currency gains. Economists were confused with the reaction from the greenback to Employment data, as it came in above initial estimates. This was forecast to support gains in the USD.

 

 

 

ECB Hints A Rate Rise | March 4, 2011

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Good morning. Commodities came under pressure on Thursday, with equity markets spurred on by risk appetite. Initial Claims data came in better than expected with a fall to 368,000 for the period. Markets factored in a figure of 400,000. Thirty year mortgage rates and Housing demand continued to paint an uncertain economic picture. Recent data from the US government highlighted a significant disparity between new home and existing home sales. US President Obama reiterated his stance on Libyan leader Gaddafi, with the leader voicing his continued opposition. The news had little impact on the oil price with the commodity finding resistance at $102. Across the Atlantic, interest rate talk spurred a rise in the local currencies with the ECB highlighting the potential for inflationary pressure. This would effectively translate into a shift in monetary policy.

On the equity market front, the Dow Jones rose 1.5% to close up 191 points. Gains in the Financial and Media sectors helped support the major indices. Newscorp received a favourable ruling from the British authorities with the company set to purchase the remaining shares in British Sky Broadcasting. The announcement led to a 1.6% rise in the stock. The retail sector also bounced during the session, with Zumiez rising off the back of better than expected same store earnings.

On the currency front, comments from the ECB pushed the Euro higher against the greenback on Thursday. Indicating a possible tightening in monetary policy in the coming months, the European Central Bank focused on the growing disparity between the Euro zone. With the debt contagion crisis overshadowed by political events in the middle east and Libya, traders have been focusing on the base line economics and GDP forecasts. The EURUSD was flat early in the day before spiking to 1.3961 late in the session. Strength in the greenback led to declines in the Japanese Yen on Thursday. Trading at 82.33, the currency reacted to news that the BOJ had reduced their growth forecasts. Indicating that deflation could be a long term problem for the economy, the Bank of Japan was cautious over the interest rate situation. Economists have recently voiced their concerns over the long term economic sustainability within the region. Flat session for the Aussie dollar with the currency reacting to building construction data. Reporting a fall of 15.9% for the January period, the ABS highlighted the degree of movement from the previous period. This initially alarmed the market with the AUD falling to 1.0123 before rebounding to 1.0154. Trading on light volumes, the market also factored in the possibility of another interest rate rise in the coming months. Recent comments from the RBA have eluded to this fact.