US Markets Close Down On Manufacturing Data And Potential Credit Rating Downgrade | August 2, 2011

Dow

Dow trading below 12,000

The Australian equity market is set for a weaker open Tuesday morning after US stocks closed down overnight as weak manufacturing data and worries of potential downgrades to the U.S. credit rating overpowered investor relief over the weekend’s debt-ceiling deal.

The Dow (see above chart) dropped 10.75 points to finish at 12132.49 after a volatile session that saw the Dow briefly fall below 12000 for the first time since late June. The index had initially risen as much as 139.18 points immediately after the open, as investors expressed relief at the compromise hammered out late Sunday to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.

The S&P500 index lost 5.34 points close at 1286.94, for its sixth straight decline.

The EURUSD declined from overnight highs of 1.4454 to trade as low as 1.4186 after a last minute deal to avert a downgrade and default on U.S. government obligations boosted the dollar and shifted attention back to the euro zone’s festering debt issues.

The USDJPY has finished a volatile overnight session after initially trading down from highs of above 78.00 to bounce off lows of 76.30 on speculation that Japan is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to weaken the currency. At time of writing this report the USDJPY was trading at 77.53.

The AUDUSD has traded down from overnight highs of 1.1067 to a low of 1.0921.

Gold declined from record highs on optimism that congress would pass a compromise curbing the demand for the metal as a safe haven.

INDICES  
  Last Traded
SPI 200 future 4397
S&P500 Index 1287
Dow Jones Indus. Avg 12132
FTSE 100 Index 5774
   
COMMODITIES  
  Last Traded
Gold 1616.80
Oil (Nymex) 95.32
   
CURRENCIES  
  Last Traded
AUDUSD 1.0981
EURUSD 1.4260
GBPUSD 1.6303
USDJPY 77.53

Source Bloomberg, Dow Jones News

Markets Flat As Investors Wait For News On The Debt Ceiling | July 29, 2011

USDCHF

USDCHF trades at record lows

The Australian equity market is pointed to a slightly weaker open today after the Dow finished 62 points lower 12240.11, the blue-chip measure’s fifth straight loss. The S&P500 index shed 4.22 points to close at 1300.67 as lawmakers indicated they were no closer to reaching an agreement to the increase of the debt ceiling and avoiding default.

The stalling of the U.S. debt-ceiling debates has convinced many investors that the government is on track to lose its triple-A credit rating. Attention on the subject intensified late Thursday as House Republican leaders aimed for an evening vote on their latest proposal to cut spending and increase the borrowing limit. The action follows weeks of squabbling between the White House and Congress.

The AUDUSD traded down from highs of 1.1076 overnight to as low as 1.0977, traders seem to be sitting on the fence awaiting for the House of Representatives  vote later on Friday.

The USDCHF (see above chart) dropped to a record for the fourth straight day trading down as low as 0.7990 as the US house of representatives headed towards a showdown. At time of writing this report the USDCHF has bounced slightly to sit at 0.8014.

WTI crude had a unexciting evening finishing the US session at 97.44 after US jobless claims dropped to the lowest level in almost four months, this signals that the fuel consumption may increase as the weakness in the jobs markets lightens.

Source Bloomberg, Dow Jones News

INDICES

Last Traded

SPI 200 future

4427

S&P500 Index

1300.67

Dow Jones Indus. Avg

12240.11

FTSE 100 Index

5873.21

COMMODITIES

Last Traded

Gold

1615.65

Oil (Nymex)

97.13

CURRENCIES

Last Traded

AUDUSD

1.0999

EURUSD

1.4325

GBPUSD

1.6360

USDJPY

77.77

Markets Weak As Investors Uncertain If US Can Hold Onto AAA Rating | July 26, 2011

USDCHF

The USDCHF traded as low at 0.8022 overnight which is now a record as investors demand the safest assets

The Australian equity market is pointed to a higher open today after the US markets recovered from the initial drop pre trade Monday. Overnight the US stocks ended the session down after the deadlock in Washington’s debt negotiations curbed investors’ risk appetite and left them uncertain whether the U.S. can hold on to its triple-A credit rating.

The Dow lost 88.36 points to close at 12592.80, this is its third drop in four sessions. The blue-chip index fell by as much as 145 points early in the session, after the collapse of the debt-ceiling talks triggered a flight to safer assets such as gold, which settled at a record $1,612 an ounce. Stocks recovered some ground as Republicans and Democrats each pledged separate efforts to raise the debt ceiling. The S&P500 index shed 7.59 points to close at 1337.43.

The USDCHF traded as low at 0.8022 overnight which is now a record as investors demand the safest assets while dropping the USD and EUR on the back of lawmakers failing to agree on raising the nations $14.3 trillion debt and Greece’s credit rating cut. At time of writing this report it was sitting at 0.8054.

The NZDUSD dropped to a low of 0.8613 in early Asian trade after a government report showed exports shrank more than economists had estimated.

Gold traded as high as 1624 per ounce as investors demand the metal as a haven investment. Gold is now up 13 percent this year and heading for the 11th straight annual gain.

INDICES
  Last Traded
SPI 200

4535

S&P500 Index

1337.43

Dow Jones Indus. Avg

12592.80

FTSE 100 Index

5925.26

COMMODITIES
  Last Traded
Gold

1613.95

Oil (Nymex)

99.14

CURRENCIES

Last Traded

AUDUSD

1.0849

EURUSD

1.4372

GBPUSD

1.6280

USDJPY

78.30

Source Bloomberg, Dow Jones News

EURUSD Weak on Moody’s Downgrade of Portugal to Junk | July 7, 2011

EURUSD

The EURUSD declined over 1% to a week's low after Portugal become the second nation to receive a junk credit ratings

Australian stocks look set for a small decline on the open today. European stocks finished lower while US stocks finished slightly higher as investors look to Non-farm payrolls and corporate earnings out at the beginning of next week.

During the European session Portugal’s PSI 20 index sank 3% while the Italian MIB index declined by 2.4%, leading the way on both exchanges were the financials as investors dumped the stocks on debt exposure concerns.

The Dow ended the session up 56 points to 12626 which is near a two month high, while the S&P index edged up 1.34 points to 1339.22.

The EURUSD (see above chart) declined over 1% to a week’s low after Portugal become the second nation of 17 in the euro-zone to receive a junk credit ratings from Moody’s. Other news to push the Euro south was the interest rate rise in China from 3.25 to 3.5 percent renewing worries about a slowdown in global growth. The EURUSD traded to a low of 1.4284 from an early session high of 1.4467.

Crude futures settled slightly lower Wednesday after trading as high as 97.80 early yesterday evening, investors will be concentrating on the weekly U.S. oil-inventory data later this week.

Gold rose for the second day running  as investors scrambled to the precious metal as a safe haven. Spot gold rose 16.50 to settle at 1,529.

INDICES
  Last Traded
SPI 200

4605

S&P500 Index

1339.22

Dow Jones Indus. Avg

12626

FTSE 100 Index

6002

COMMODITIES
  Last Traded
Gold

1529.2

Oil (Nymex)

97.20

CURRENCIES

Last Traded

AUDUSD

1.0692

EURUSD

1.4328

GBPUSD

1.6006

USDJPY

80.95

Weak Across Board As Italian Banks Hit Hard | June 27, 2011

EURCHF

The EURCHF opened up Monday morning trade at new all time lows of 1.1829

U.S. stock finished the week lower as several major banks in Italy suspended their stocks after a sudden drop in their share price with unconfirmed rumors that those banks were undergoing a “stress test” and they wouldn’t pass it. Moody then come out and warned that there could be a need to cut the credit rating of many of the Italian banks. The Dow finished down 115 to close at 11934.while the S&P500 finished at 1,268, a drop of over one percent.

The EURCHF (see chart above) opened up Monday morning trade at new all time lows of 1.1829. The EURUSD has traded off 20 points and is currently sitting above key  support levels of 1.4160. Greece’s deputy prime minister warned that rebel lawmakers could possibly block some reforms that are being sought by international lenders involved in the deal.

USDJPY continues to range trade between 80.75 and 80.15. Trader will be looking to get some direction from the retail sales out on early today and then look to Thursday for the key weekly event, the Tankan Manufacturing Index.

Gold  finished off the week by dropping over 1 percent to finish in negative territory and wipe out all  the gains from earlier in the weeks trade. Gold is currently sitting above the key physiological support levels of 1500.

INDICES
 

Last Traded

SPI 200

4455

S&P500 Index

1261

Dow Jones Indus. Avg

11850

FTSE 100 Index

5653

COMMODITIES
 

Last Traded

Gold

1500

Oil (Nymex)

90.82

CURRENCIES
 

Last Traded

AUDUSD

1.0475

EURUSD

1.4175

GBPUSD

1.5962

USDJPY

80.46

Global Markets Fell As Greek Woes Heighten | June 16, 2011

USDCAD

USDCAD made a stellar gain of over 150 points to trade above 98.

Weak night across the board as world markets tumbled amid concern Greek’s default is looking more likely than ever with current credit rating of triple C, just two notches above default. The deadlock of second bailout is weighing into the markets as the mechanism behind the package has been disapprovingly reacted by the general populace, that is, the involvement of private creditors, which will no doubt heighten the level of default.

SP500 down 1.74% and DOW also lost over 178 points to make up a fall of 1.48%. The bear domination was on the back of both protests rallied against the government displaying their frustration towards the austerity mechanism and the dismal economic results of US. CPI came in at 0.2% slightly higher than expected of 0.1% whilst industrial production made a sluggish gain of 0.1%, lower than analyst expectation of 0.2%.

Poor sentiment forced USD to strengthen against its major peers, sending some of the focused currencies to lose all their week’s gain. EURUSD fell below 1.42 and continue to oscillate within a 20 points range below the figure. The downside capitulation does not seem to be stopping anytime soon especially with the situation in Greece and EURUSD will see the below 1.40 very soon. Furthermore, GBPUSD could not ignore the bearish lead as it also loss some heavy grounds to trade below 1.62 for the remaining of the session.

European fears escalate has spilled over to Asian currencies with AUDUSD loss over 100 points to trade under 1.0550, erased all the gains made in the last 3 days. However, on the flipside, a bullish tone was created for USDJPY aided by the strength in USD. USDJPY finally broke through the 81 level after almost half of month tracking around the 80.

USDCAD made a stellar gain of over 150 points to trade above 98. The weakness in CAD was a combination of USD strength and Canadian factory sales fell on the back of Japanese inability to improve at a decent rate on its auto production after the natural disaster.

INDICES  
  Last Traded Change %
SPI 200

4566.80

-0.4

S&P500 Index

1265.42

-1.74

Dow Jones Indus. Avg

11897.27

-1.48

FTSE 100 Index

5742.55

-1.04

COMMODITIES
  Last Traded Change %
Gold

1530.20

0.26

Oil (Nymex)

95.48

0.71

CURRENCIES
  Last Traded Change %
AUDUSD

1.0578

0.01

EURUSD

1.4182

0.01

GBPUSD

1.6195

-0.02

USDJPY

80.89

0.09

Greece Downgraded To World’s Lowest | June 14, 2011

USDJPY

USDJPY is struggling to lift itself out of the low 80 as it continues to move around that level and face downward pressure.

Another Greece’s credit downgrade led to a mixed session last night as the market sold off concerning the inability of Greece controlling their debts. The sell offs were short lived as US stock inflexed upwards on the back of strong merger and acquisition activities. This choppy session saw SP500 ended relatively flat on the positive of 0.07%.

EUR attempted to make some respectful gain on the latter part of last night session to stay above 1.44. The selling pressure was initiated by the downgrade of Greece to the lowest level in the world. This downgrade was on the back of the proposed solution, being debt restructuring and extending the maturities of bonds, both of which are not seen as a viable method by market participants as they are just delaying the inevitable default.

AUDUSD currently treading above 1.06 level, gaining back some of its losses on Friday session where the near low 1.05 level was tested. We envisage the AUDUSD as will fluctuates within a 200 points range between 1.05 and 1.07, especially when Gold is creeping towards to the 1500. However, gold can still be seen bullish at least for medium term.

USDJPY is struggling to lift itself out of the low 80 as it continues to move around that level and face downward pressure. Moreover, USDJPY does not look like it will have any upside risks given the ongoing macro issues that are stalling any market upside movements for the next 3-6 months.

In the short term, we envisage the markets will be weak across globally. The Feds does not seem to want to discuss about further QE injection, hence the markets will continue to be soft as they have recognized that US growth is on halt and further injection is required. However, the problem is not supply but rather demand constraint as mentioned in the report previously, the market is still rich with cash but reluctantly dispatch it. It would seem that the Feds has recognized this and trying to give the markets a chance to circulate their own money, allowing the markets to operate freely and move away from nationalization, however, since the inception of GFC back in 2008 market fundamentals had somewhat been replaced by sentiment driven, forcing participants to put everything on reserve as they are afraid of liquidity issue.

INDICES  
  Last Traded Change %
S&P500 Index

1271.83

0.07

Dow Jones Indus. Avg

11952.97

0.01

FTSE 100 Index

5773.46

0.13

COMMODITIES
  Last Traded Change %
Gold

1516.5

0.06

Oil (Nymex)

96.95

-0.36

CURRENCIES
  Last Traded  
AUDUSD

1.0595

 
EURUSD

1.4398

 
GBPUSD

1.6364

 
USDJPY

80.165

 

Moody To Downgrade US Debt | June 3, 2011

NZDUSD

NZDUSD seemed to have ready put back the bull hat and marches on

US was relatively quiet last night with some preliminary numbers that were released to set up for the nervous non-farm payrolls tonight at 10:30 AEST. SP500 futures traded within 11 points range with an average mean of 6 points range. US gained approximately 3.5 points on the back of mediocre results with nonfarm productivity higher than expected at 1.8% and initial jobless claims were 5K more than expected, indicating high participation rate with limited capacity from the economy to take on more jobs. More importantly, this signifies that US is still struggling with its economic growth and non-farm tonight will certainly confirm if the number is weak (which is expected to come in much lower than last month).

Moody promulgated last night that they look to downgrade US government’s Aaa credit rating unless debt limit is increase by July. This was further escalated when Tim Geithner warned that congress will need to raise debt ceiling to prevent catastrophic affects and stall US growth.

Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
Nonfarm Productivity

1.70%

1.80%

1.60%

- -
Unit Labor Costs

0.80%

0.70%

1.00%

- -
Initial Jobless Claims 417K 422K 424K 428K
Continuing Claims 3675K 3711K 3690K 3712K

Greece’s debt finally found some ground last night as Eurozone officials confirmed that new program involves external aid with a 3 year adjustment. This has provided some relief for the markets and saw the EUR soared across the board with EURUSD breached the 1.45 level, and holding its highs throughout the session.

Gold and Oil fell dramatically in the early part of US session losing 0.85% and 2% respectively, with Oil broken below 99 level. The commodity bear did not last long as it rallied back the majority of its losses when Eurozone announced a 3 year adjustment program for Greece. Commodity currencies AUDUSD and USDCAD also reversed their losses against USD, with AUDUSD treading just below 1.07 and USDCAD just above 97.40. Moreover, AUD sympathetic partner NZDUSD seemed to have ready put back the bull hat and marches on the already impressive move on the upside of 16% just under 3 months.

INDICES
  Last Traded Previous Close Change % Net Change
SPI 200 Futures

4615

4606

0.195

9

S&P500 Index

1312.94

1314.55

-0.122

-1.61

S&P500 Futures

1311.75

1312.5

-0.057

-0.75

Dow Jones Indus. Avg

12248.55

12290.14

-0.338

-41.59

FTSE 100 Index

5847.92

5928.61

-1.361

-80.69

Volatility Index

18.09

18.3

-1.148

-0.21

COMMODITIES
  Last Traded Previous Close Change % Net Change
Gold

1535.5

1532.7

0.183

2.8

Oil (Nymex)

100.75

100.4

0.349

0.35

CURRENCIES
  Last Traded Previous Close Change % Net Change
AUDUSD

1.0686

1.067

0.150

0.0016

EURUSD

1.4491

1.4491

0.000

0

GBPUSD

1.6367

1.6371

-0.024

-0.0004

USDJPY

80.82

80.9

0.099

-0.08

A Tenuous Market… | May 25, 2011

XAUUSD

Chart for Gold (XAUUSD)

US market overnight tracked sideways as they tentatively waited for some sort of resolution in the European region. SP500 attempted to rally after the open within the interval of 40 minutes. However, it was not long until it slowly headed south and traded within a 6 points range for the remaining of the session.

The “fear” sentiment largely driven by the downgrade of Greek’s debt as well as S&P also set the Italian credit rating from stable to negative. Markets in the last 48 hours looked at Treasuries, USD and commodities for some salvations. This explains why gold and oil (back up above the 100 level) slowly creeping north, coupled with the fact that Goldman upgraded from bearish to bullish view (as the market is embracing the loss in Libyan’s oil production and OPEC lack of interjection). Hence, allowing AUDUSD to hold its 1c gain after the dip to 1.0480.

FTSE and DAX continued to displayed weakness and this is no surprise. Both tried to convert themselves to a “bid” market, however, ended at previous day lows of 5850 and 7150 respectively. Apart from Greece is now looking to default just around the corner (as its current supply can only last to July 2011), sentiment was not helped when PMI in Eurozone pulled back to the mid 50s level, slender the market conditions even further.

PBOC has explicitly made it clear that they will tighten their monetary policy in the short term. This has created a very “restrictive nature” in the market and had the Shanghai composite  down 0.28%, which is holding a 3% down from Monday. Goldman downgraded their 2011 GDP to 9.4% from 10%. Furthermore, across the emerging markets realm, the respective regulator bodies are now on the “rate hike” band wagon, fighting inflationary pressure (so too is RBA).

AUDUSD currently range trading at present and the last 3 sessions has proven that. Partly because of China tightening policy view as Australia has great leverage in that nation, as well as RBA consistently promulgates that it must raise the rate soon to curb inflation.

INDICES
  Last Traded Previous Close Change % Net Change
SPI 200 Futures

4633

4630

0.065

3

S&P500 Index

1316.28

1317.37

-0.083

-1.09

S&P500 Futures

1313

1313.5

-0.038

-0.5

Dow Jones Indus. Avg

12356.21

12381.26

-0.202

-25.05

FTSE 100 Index

5858.41

5835.89

0.386

22.52

Volatility Index

17.82

18.27

-2.463

-0.45

COMMODITIES
  Last Traded Previous Close Change % Net Change
Gold

1525.4

1523.3

0.138

2.1

Oil (Nymex)

99.19

99.59

-0.402

-0.40001

CURRENCIES
Last Traded Previous Close Change % Net Change
AUDUSD

1.0555

1.0559

-0.038

-0.0004

EURUSD

1.4096

1.41

-0.028

-0.0004

GBPUSD

1.6178

1.6181

-0.019

-0.0003

USDJPY

82.04

81.95

-0.110

0.09

Kiwi On Backfoot After Credit Rating Downgrade | November 23, 2010

Kiwi On Backfoot

Risk sentiment in the forex markets improved yesterday as Ireland’s confirmation to accept the much needed financial stimulus package calmed investors nerves. The Australian Dollar was one of the biggest winners and climbed over half a cent to US99.46 yesterday afternoon. EURUSD and GBPUSD also benefitted and climbed higher to 1.3627 and 1.5960 respectively.

The biggest loser of the day was the New Zealand Dollar which lost 1.2% yesterday against the Greenback on the back of a credit rating downgrade. Standard & Poors highlighted their concern over increasing current account deficit problems facing the NZ government and downgraded the country’s credit rating from stable to negative. The Kiwi Dollar fell to US77.36 immediately following the announcement and continued to fall breaching 0.77 overnight, and against the Australian Dollar the Kiwi fell to 1.2850.