Vantage FX | Can the Dow hit 15,000? Will Aussie trade below 1.05 today? | 12 April 2013

April 12, 2013 By

Stocks climbed higher once more overnight as the benign pro-stock environment continued – the market is getting exxcited now and the pundits are talking about Dow 15,000. Nothing like Dow 36,000 that we saw more than a decade ago but remarkable nonetheless in the current global economic environment where the IMF just this morning has downgraded its expectation for US growth from 2% for 2013 to just 1.7%.

But it’s not about the economy is it, it’s not about a low growth profile, its only about earnings at the margin but it is about free money and finding somewhere to put it. So we remain at the mercy of central bankers but as the Bitcoin debacle has shown this week markets are still markets and crowds still have manias so we should always be on guard.

Microsoft was under pressure overnight after news that PC sales have plummeted in what is an increasingly tablet world. Of course PC sales are integral to sales of Windows and in particular Windows 8. My personal view is that my iPad now sits under my desk and I recently purchased a Toshiba Tablet/Laptop with Windows 8 and it is brilliant. Windows 8 is after all just windows with a different start screen – once you get your head around that then its easy and I can do all my normal spreadsheeting with ease and run my trading software. But others are yet to be convinced and Microsoft fell 4.8% overnight.

Given Microsoft is a Dow component the fact that the Dow still finished up 63 points of 0.42% shows just how strong the tailwind of central banks liquidity is at the moment. Equally though the big fall in jobless claims from 388000 last week to 346000 this week. Continuing claims were also a little lower dropping 12000. In the end the Nasdaq rose just 0.08% as the PC woes hit tech and the S&P 500 was 0.33% higher at 1593.

In Europe stocks did well after the Italian 3 year bond auction which went off at 2.29% versus 2.48% last time. At the close the FTSE is up 0.45%, the DAX rose 0.79% and CAC rose 0.86%. In Milan stocks rose 0.58% with Spanish stocks up 0.29%.

EuroYen continues to push higher making another 3 year+ high at 131.11 overnight as Euro pushed up a little against the USD making a high of 1.3138 and is up 0.27% on the day at 1.3103. As you can see in the weekly EURJPY chart above EuroYen is now approaching the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2012 sell off which might form a barrier for the moment but given the moves in USDJPY are the key drivers lately of Euro Yen and other Yen crosses the view on this and other Yen crosses really needs to be a view on USDJPY.

With Kuroda reiterating his commitment to liquidity and the debasement of the Yen just this week it is really going to be about market positioning and we look forward to seeing the CFTC data tomorrow morning to see just how long the Yen bears have gotten to see if there is any chance of a snap back. For the moment though any weakness in USDJPY continues to be bought back aggressively. Key short term level is 98.51.

The Aussie had a big day yesterday after the employment data saw a drop of 36100 as the previous months big gain saw some give back. The Aussie traded down to 1.0498 from around 1.0440ish prior to the figure but the weakness was reversed as the Euro rallied in early morning London trade. Aussie rallied up to a high of 1.0582 which is marginally higher than the 72 peak the night before but it has now slipped back to 1.0437 this morning.

As you can see in the chart above the Aussie has slipped down through the little 4 hour trendline from the beginning of April and it may be headed back to test support in the 1.0380 region into the close of the week – our fast moving average comes in at 1.0422 at the moment which is often support and a slip through here would be necessary to get AUDUSD back toward the 1.0380 region. The hourly charts suggest back to yesterday’s lows.

On commodity markets Crude fell 1.25% to $93.46 Bbl, Gold was up 0.39%, Silver rose 0.17% and the Ags all went in the same direction for a change with Wheat up 0.18%, Corn 0.39% higher and Soybeans rose 0.74%.

Data 

Let’s hope for some consistent translations when BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks today in Japan. Most of the data out in Europe tonight is inflation so not a concern with PPI out in the US but the market will be watching Retail sales very closely.

 

Filed Under: April, Market Wrap Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Vantage FX | Dow hits another high, Euro pressured Aussie holding in| 14th March 2013

March 14, 2013 By

1996 was the year that that terrible song the Macarena was the number one hit around the world but also the last time that the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a 9 day winning streak. Clearly this also tells you something about this market at the moment and while we know that records are made to be broken it seems that like Olympic records rewritten to take account of performance enhancing drugs so the history of this market written in the future might discount these moves which are clearly being achieved under the performance enhancement of the Fed and its helicopter money drop.

But the trend is your friend and for the moment the trend to higher stock prices, even if only marginal new highs, continues.

The key driver overnight was the release of US retail sales which showed that the US consumer is doing better than many feared as a result of the tax hikes. Retail sales rose 1.1% against expectations of a 0.5% increase. Ex- autos and gas the performance was more subdued at +0.4% but this was still better than the 0.2% expected and encouraging in that it suggests for the moment the US economy is doing okay.

The Euro was already under pressure after the morning traders tried to bull it higher driving it up to 1.3064 in early European trade before the sellers came in with gusto driving it back to 1.3000. Then as a result of the positive retail sales report the Euro fell to a low of 1.2922 and sits at 1.2959 this morning down 0.57% over the past 24 hours. Clearly the Euro hit both of the possible trades we mentioned yesterday breaking up and then down through the recent lows and is now back in the 1.2950/70 zone.

First support for the Euro is now the 200 day moving average which comes in at 1.2847 and should it fall through here then its on its way to our eventual target of 1.2650ish.

The Euro’s weakness also took the wind out of the Pound’s rally and it retreated from a high of 1.4981 to sit at 1.4925 this morning for a gain of 0.17%. This is the first day on day gain for Sterling for more than a week now as its downtrend gets a little long in the tooth. USDJPY is largely unchanged but the low of 95.43 had us encouraged that the worm had turned for the Yen and by inference the Nikkei we talked about yesterday however the return of strength to the USD saw USDJPY rally back to 96.04 this morning largely unchanged on the day.

Looking at teh Nikkei chart above the level we talked about yesterday as a precursor to a break down is evident and, in terms of MT4 tradeable Nikkei, served as the low over the past 24 hours. A break of this level opens up the 11,860/90 region.

Turning to Australia yesterday’s housing data is a real conundrum. On the one hand we had overall home loan lending falling 1.5% last month against expectations of a flat result but on teh other hand we continue to see reports and releases of House Price Indices that say that house prices here in Australia are on the rise. Indeed the annualised REIA 4th quarter house price rise was something in the order of 15% (slightly dodgy way to look at things here in Australia where we normally use YoY). How can we be getting reportedly solid rises in house prices yet no demand for credit? It suggests that this increase in house prices and possibly the uptick in Westpac Consumer confidence which was also released yesterday and sits at the highest level since December 2010 might be transient.

It is hard to tell but without an increasing demand for credit we are skeptical that the house price rise extrapolation that many of the housing pundits (of which we are happily admit to not be one) are expecting across the rest of the year are going to flow through. Which means that this might be a false dawn for the economy and the NAB’s 50 basis points of cuts expected this year might have a higher probability than the market is now pricing.

Now of course none of this matters for the Aussie Dollar at the moment as it battles the US dollar and is held up by the weakness in other currencies which is feeding back into Aussie buying through the crosses with the Aussie winning against all the Major crosses over the past few days.

 

As you can see in the chart above the Aussie pulled up at an old trendline yesterday. This trendline happens to be the trendline that goes all the way back to the low in 2009 so if the Aussie can’t get back above it it might be important to note. Also worth noting is that having not traded or closed above our slow moving average since January 22 the Aussie’s strength has so proved a one day wonder and it has slipped back below it over the past 24 hours.

What this also means for now is that the negative trend continues but it has been a fractious trading period for the Aussie and there is another catalyst today with the release of the vitally important employment figures. FXStreet says that the market is looking for a risk of 9,000 jobs and an increase in unemployment from 5.4% to 5.5%. above 20,000 or below 0 will get things going as will the composition of any change so watch out at 11.30 Sydney time today.

Looking elsewhere European stocks with the exception of the DAX were lower with Milanese stocks under intense pressure down 1.74%. The DAX rose 0.06%, while the FTSE fell 0.44% and the CAC dropped 0.1%.

On commodity markets the bigger than expected build in Crude stocks announced overnight knocked Nymex crude a little lower to $92.43 Bbl. Gold is down 0.2% at $1,588 and Silver is really interesting on the charts as it has been trying to break back above an old trendline for a couple of weeks now to no avail. It fell 0.72% overnight to $28.87 oz. Soybeans fell 0.99% while wheat climbed 0.96% and Corn was largely unchanged .

Data

Australian unemployment data as mentioned above will be key today for Australian markets. Pan-European employment data and jobless claims tonight in the US will be worth watching also.

Filed Under: March, Market Wrap Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Vantage FX | Aussie reverses hitting 1.04, FOMC disappoints stocks | 31st January 2013

January 31, 2013 By

The release of the FOMC Statement this morning was much anticipated and it went to script with the Fed reiterating its, commitment to doing what it can to revive the economy through its bond buying program and super low rates – the Fed also highlighted once again that the economy,

likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014

They probably won’t be buying $45 billion worth of bonds till then but clearly in this statement we can see that if they need to they will. A fact that was reinforced when they said,

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

We read the statement as fairly strongly dovish and reiterating the line that the Fed has taken for what is a pretty aggressive monetary stance that is currently being run. The fact that they say that the economy paused in the opening stanza of the statement clearly tells us they know their work is not done as does the above quote and the reference to the labour market.

Interestingly though stocks didn’t budge out of their slight losses for the day after the release and US 10′s are actually a little higher at 2.02%. As we near the close stocks falls have actually accelerated. Gold was already up strongly on the night but the Euro is pushing higher as the Fed’s announcement continues to underpin the current sweet spot for global markets. Indeed the fact the Aussie fell out of bed again post announcement reinforces that notion and the notion of the rotation away from safe harbours into markets where the chances of capital gains are higher in the minds of investors.

Also of note from the US last night was the release Q4 GDP which was a bit of a surprise with the preliminary estimate showing a contraction of 0.1% against expectations of a growth of 1.1%. Of course these numbers are annualised so the difference is nowhere near as wide as the numbers suggest. In terms of growth for the quarter what 0.1% and 1.1% actually reflect is roughly 0% growth as an outcome against expectations of growth in Q4 of 0.275%. Defense was one of the key contibutors to the fall in GDP. On a brighter note the ADP employment survey was much better than expected up 192k in January against 165k expected.

Stocks

In Europe waiting for the FOMC was the order of the day and stocks took a breather from recent strength with the FTSE down 0.26%, the DAX down 0.48% and the CAC fell 0.52%. Germany held a 30 year auction and like rates in the US its borrowing costs rose from 2.34% last time to 2.45% now which is reflective of the lifting gloom over Europe.

In the US with 18 minutes to go before the close the S&P 500 is down 7 points of 0.45% at 1501 but the intra day high of 1509.25 is the highest level since the first half of December 2007 so the market remains strong. The Dow is down .36% and the Nasdaq is off .53%.

In Australia yesterday the market managed to print higher for the 10th day in a row which is no big deal except that it hasn’t happened for a while. No doubt brokers and advisers are longing for the long forgotten days of the 1982 – 2000 bull market and perhaps we are on the verge of a new dawn for Australian stocks – from an economic point of view if Australians feel wealthier then it might help with the domestic economy and activity but on that note election campaigns normally dampen economic activity for the 4 or 6 weeks that they occur so we wonder if an almost 8 month campaign is too long to matter or so long that it can’t help but matter due to the uncertainty it might create.

The Australian Newspaper this morning reports Roger Corbett, RBA Board Member and Chairman of Fairfax, said

“What this has done is put the country into election mode,” Mr Corbett told The Australian. “Election campaigns are always destabilising for business, especially the retail sector. I really wonder what the benefits are.”

Add this to the floods and Australian growth might come under pressure in the next few quarters – only time will tell.

Global FX

The Euro shot up to a high of 1.3587 in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC decision which seems the right approach as the status quo was reinforced. Euro is now up 0.68% on the day and after another 100+ point range. The Aussie on the other hand struggled in the past 24 hours falling to a low of 1.0400 from yesterday’s high of 1.0475 for a loss of 0.64% at 1.0408 currently. The Yen is 0.50% weaker against the US dollar at 91.18 while the Pound’s recovery continued with it sitting at 1.5794 for a gain of 0.2% on the day. Last week’s USDCAD break out has reversed back below the pivotal 1.0060/65 region and this remains a key level for any further run higher in USDCAD. Watch out for Canadian GDP tonight.

Looking specifically at the Euro we see that it has technically now broken through the neck of the reverse head and shoulders at 1.35 and the way is now pointed higher. The most bullish forecast from this point would be for a run toward the 1.50 region. Euro is now above the 200 day moving average for the first time since October last year and the net target is 1.3820.

Looking shorter term suppport at 1.3475/85 needs to hold or this might be a false break.

Turning to the Aussie it was a story of weakness. Yesterday morning the market looked like it was going to head up toward 1.35 but during the day it simply couldn’t get through the 1.0475 region and we turned short term bears selling at 1.04675 – we took our money a little early at 1.0429 as the last 24 hours candle is as negative as yesterday morning’s was positive. Perhaps that is a warning but the Aussie looks biased back toward the recent base at 1.0380/85 which you can see in the 4 hour chart below.

If, and we stress IF, the 1.0380 region gives way the Aussie will look very weak technically.

Commodities

Gold and Silver continued their rallies up 0.95% and 2.75% respectively to $1676 and $32.01 an Oz. Crude was also higher 0.44% to $98.00 and satisfying our expectation from yesterday. Stuff that grows was on a tear with Wheat, Corn, Soybeans and Sugar all up well north of 1%. Frozen OJ had a huge 4% plus move. We love commodities and commodity trading – the ags and other non “money” markets offer superb diversification.

Data

In Australia we get the HIA home sales, import and export indices, and private sector credit. German retail sales, unemployment and price indices will be a European highlight tonight before Canadian GDP and US jobless claims.

 

Filed Under: January, Market Wrap Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,

Vantage FX | Wild night in FX land, Yen tanks, Aussie down | 25th January 2013

January 25, 2013 By

Data in Germany and the US was positive for markets overnight giving European markets a stronger close but the US markets have pulled back off their highs from around 11am their time with the Nasdaq under heavy pressure from Apple.

Apple shares got absolutely smashed overnight down 12% at one stage and there is little doubt now that the combination of technicals and fundamentals are pointing the stock lower still. The weaker than expected earnings was the catalyst for the sell off but the technical picture for Apple has looked weak for some time. The last nights move has now finally broken the uptrend from 2008.In a purely technical sense the $350/360 region looks like it is the key level that Apple might head toward. Now of course if the rest of the market is heading higher as it is presently this might temper Apple’s fall but the break of a multi-year trend line is no small event – we’ll see where it closes in Friday trade for confirmation.

Looking at the PMI data that was released there is much to feel positive about in an economic sense. The HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China was higher as was Germany, the EU and the United States. The key for us is the fact that China and the US are above the 50 expansion mark and with the exception of France are all headed in a more positive direction.

Jobless claims in the US were also positive and while a small 5,000 fall in a nation the size of the united States is small bikkies the reality is that after the big fall last week many thought that there would be a reversal – so once again its not necessarily the data print but what expectations of the data print are that drive markets. The market expected 355,000 yet the print was 330,000. This is positive for the US equity market as is the 4 week moving average which is falling also. For the record Jobless claims are the lowest they have been in 5 years.

Stocks

The East coast of the United States is 5 hours behind Britain and 6 hours behind the Western part of the European continent. So the highs at 11am in New York either at or after the close for Europe’s bourses and so at the close European markets were close to their highs. The FTSE was up 1.09% or 67 points at 6265, the DAX was more subdued up just 0.52% and the CAC was 0.69% higher. Stocks in Milan rose 1.01% and in Madrid they were 0.61% higher.

In the US the early strength has given way to less ebullient trade as the troubles with Apple wash through the market and the Nasdaq is down 0.56% with 20 minutes to trade. The S&P 500 is up 0.15% and the Dow is up 0.49%.

In Asia yesterday the Nikkei was up 1.28% as the Yen reversed its recent strength after comments from a Japanese minister hinted at 100 as the target for the Abe Administration. The rest of Asia was more mixed but the ASX was up 0.45%.

Global FX

A big night of ranges for Global FX markets overnight with the Euro trading 1.3285 up to 1.3392 and rests currently at 1.3370 for a gain of 0.40%. Sterling had a big figure range as well 1.5850 down to 1.5753 and sits at 1.5789 for a fall of 0.35%. But it was the Yen which was the big mover trading 88.40 up to 90.14 and its rests at 89.98 presently for a loss of 1.56% against the USD – that is a huge move for FX markets. USDCAD reversed some of yesterday’s weakness and the Aussie Dollar came under pressure with it too trading a range of more than 1 big fugure with a high of 1.0555 giving way to a low of 1.0448 and it sits presently at 1.0463 for a loss of 0.86%

It’s not usual for markets to be a bit risk on and the Aussie to break the bottom of its trading box and head lower but this price action does support the view that a rotation away from the Aussie and Aussie dollar denominated assets is occurring. Our hypothesis for the Aussie has been that it is a safe harbour in a storm not a safe haven. The price action overnight in the face of a better economic performance from the PMI’s of China, Germany and the US is a case in point. Money seems to be rotating out of the Aussie and into markets that are once again offering the chance for profit.

We’ll see – it could just be that the US dollar is stronger because its economy is healing – but then again that’s the point of a safe harbour isn’t it – port in a storm awaiting sunshine. The economic sun seems to be shining a little brighter than at any time in the past couple of years in the US. At least for the moment.

Looking technically at the 4 hour charts we see the AUD broke an old trendline and then the bottom of the box to head to an overnight low of 1.0448 before rallying a little in the last few hours. The daily charts suggest further losses and the Aussie would need to break back above 1.0480/85 to turn the short term outlook more positive once again.

The huge range and reversal in USDJPY was fuelled by the comments of Junior Economi Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura who said,

The current level around ¥90 can be said to be a correction in the strong yen, but it isn’t over yet

This comment coupled with with the large amount of buyers still unsatisfied in the market and the fact, well we think it is a fact, that the fall in USDJPY crossed our fast moving average but couldn’t get through the middle of the Bolly bands meant that the bulls were still in control – even though we desperately wanted a pullback to cleanse the market.

As you can see in the chart above the USDJPY has once again hit the high of the run and while it is still overcooked it’s a bull market so be bullish.

Euro is still trading within the box we have identified and it needs to break either 1.3404 or 1.3250ish to get us overly excited. But that’s a big enough range to trade shorter term as you can also see in the chart.

Commodities

Gold was down $16.80 an oz. or 1% to $1668 and Silver was off 2.20% to $31.75 oz. Crude on the other hand managed to rally another 0.81% even thought the EIA data showed an increase of 2.813 million barrels in storage after last week’s unexpected draw. The Ags were mixed with corn up 0.38%, wheat fell 0.81% and soybeans fell 0.10%. Copper was off 0.18%.

Data

China has its MNI Business sentiment index out today then the focus turns to Europe where the German IFO and UK GDP will give traders plenty to get excited about.

Please note that even though the 26th of January is Australia Day the Public holiday is next Monday in Australia so there will be no Morning Report – have a great weekend and Happy Australia Day, Happy Birthday to my son Hamish and Happy Republic Day to our Indian Friends.  

Filed Under: January, Market Wrap Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Vantage FX | Walking along the cliff, Aussie reverses with stocks | 14th December 2012

December 14, 2012 By

Ben Bernanke would have looked at the US PPI data last night and been convinced he is doing the right thing. During November producer prices fell 0.8% from -0.2% last and -0.5% expected with the year on year rate now sitting at just 1.5%. Of course the Fed Chairman is expressly targeting unemployment now and will keep rates low until the rate falls to 6.5% but for mine the real target of his unconventional monetary policy is deflation.

Bernanke is a depression scholar and knows what has occurred in Japan for the past 20 years and he knows that weak aggregate demand equals weak pricing power which ultimately can or does lead to deflation.

Perhaps the markets know this too because the QE4 strength continued to fade overnight with US markets in the red from early trade following on from European stock markets which were weak from the get go as they caught up to the US reversal the previous day.

Now that the Fed is out of the way and now that we are approaching the second half of the month it is inevitable that markets in the US and by extension elsewhere must focus on the fiscal cliff discussions – or it seems lack thereof. Overnight John Boehner, the Republican House Speaker didn’t muck around when he said that the White House was willing to walk right up to the Cliff.

In a note yesterday to clients focussed on the same theme I had yesterday in the AUD Cross post yesterday that it is equities that will drive the Aussie dollar the Commonwealth Bank FX team made a compelling case for why stocks might actually fall into years end.

There is a risk that US equity markets underperform over the final weeks of 2012.  Several factors may contribute to this possible weakness:

(a) Our analysis has found that 98 of the stocks in the S&P 500 are set to pay dividends (special or regular) between 19 and 31 December.  The final batch of these stocks will begin to trade ex?dividend from 17 December.  In total, the 98 stocks equate to 15% of the S&P 500 market capitalisation.  The highest number and largest cumulative dividend payouts will occur on 21 and 28 December.

(b) US equity investors may look to lock in profits before year?end to benefit from the lower capital gains tax rates currently in place.  In the year to date, the S&P 500 has risen by 13.6%.  This type of year?end investor behaviour by investors is nothing new.  Between 2000 and 2011, US equity markets tended to fall in the final week of December if the equity market performed strongly in the year.

(c) Since 2008, average daily trading volumes in the S&P 500 over the second half of December have been around 35% below the average between January and November.  Reduced liquidity can exacerbate market moves.  If the pressure in the final week of December is for the equity markets to move lower, then lower volumes could generate a larger downward spike.

(d) The current positive market expectations about the fiscal cliff may turn negative.  At the time of writing there are 19 days for the US politicians to reach an agreement to avoid the full fiscal cliff.  Heightened concerns about a possible US recession if no agreement looks in reach could weigh on global asset markets.

This is important to remember because while it would seem ludicrous to think that US politicians will let themselves go over the cliff don’t forget that the market funk back in 2008 after Lehman Brothers collapsed wasn’t really the collapse itself but the inability of lawmakers to pass Hank Paulson’s rescue bill the first time.

So there is a precedent and a huge one.

Stocks

So as discussed above European stocks were under pressure from the get go and at the close the FTSE was off 0.27%, the DAX fell 0.43% but the CAC was off only 0.10%.  Madrid and Milan did however have another better night closing up 0.43% and 0.64%.

In the US with 2 hours to go the S&P 500 is down 0.67%, the Dow is off 0.47% and the NASDAQ has dropped 0.74%

In Asia yesterday the Nikkei was on a tear as the competitiveness dividend of a materially weaker and weakening Yen helps stocks much higher with the index closing up 1.68%. The Kospi was also sharply higher after the BoK decision rising 1.38% while here in Australia the All Ords was essentially flat rising just 1 point at the close. Shanghai continued its erratic and volatile trade falling more than 1% but Hong Kong was less down beat falling just 0.26%.

Global FX

Yesterday in the Morning Call I said that I thought the call of a run to 1.06 was valid but in the AUD Cross post where I focus directly on the AUDUSD, EURAUD, AUDJPY and the AUDNZD each day I made the point strongly that the AUD top was in and that if equities had turned lower then so to had the AUD.

So it was in the last 24 hours with the AUD following the futures and actual trade of the S&P 500.

audusd

 

As you can see in the chart above at 5.14 this morning as equities sold off so the AUD broke back under the trendline it broke up through – and which stretches back to the high in 2011 – and is now back at support around 1.0507. Below here it is 1.0489 and then if that gives way it is a reversal of the rally back to 1.0450.

The EUR too is constrained by an important trendline as you can see in the chart below. If stocks are going to go off or at least focus on the Cliff then it is to the US dollar that eyes will turn.

euro

 

A break of 1.3037 would open the way lower and a break up through 1.3107 would turn the outlook more positive.

Commodities

silver

I like silver back in the $30 region and last nights move where it dropped more than 4% reinforces that reality to me (well its not really a reality until it comes to pass, but you know what I mean). Gold was off as well falling 1.3% back below $1700 trading at $1694 as I write at 6am EDT.  Copper was also off 1.38% and crude fell 0.48%.

Filed Under: December, Market Wrap Tagged With: , , , , ,

Vantage FX | Fed launches QE4, USD weak AUD and Euro higher | 13th December 2012

December 13, 2012 By

The Fed has ramped up its efforts at stimulus and signalled that the notion of QEInfinity was right expressing its disappointment at the recovery so far and the level and length of time that Americans are spending on the Dole queues. In its statement this morning the Fed said that it will keep rates at zero until the unemployment rate hits 6.5%. It has also replaced operation twist with a new bond buying program which not only includes its commitment to purchasing agency mortgage backed securities in the amount of $40 billion per month but also to purchase longer term Treasury securities  ”initially” at a pace of $45 billion per month from the end of the year.

Please note the $45 billion of buying will not be sterilised in the same manner that operation twist was by selling short bonds – that is quite a big further monetary stimulus. Accompanying the statement was the Fed’s forecasts which suggest that unemployment won’t be at 6.5% till 2015 so we have at least two years of zero rates ahead of us in the US.

The result has been a lift in risk appetite with stocks higher and the US dollar and Japanese Yen under pressure. While assets that have been goosed by a weaker USD and quantitative easing over the past few years like the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, like Crude, gold and silver all rose in response to the Fed’s moves.

Equally important overnight was the unexpected hand across the aisle from Silvio Berlusconi to Mario Monti in Italy. Mr Monti, who resigned over the weekend had been making some strange noises about potentially running in the election. Overnight however Berlusconi in a grand gesture saying that he had no personal ambition offered to withdraw from the race and to support Monti as long as he came together at the head of a party of moderates.

The combination has been a very positive night across the board although it is worth saying as I write that the gains are being trimmed possibly by the reality of the economic weakness that the continuing Fed action speaks to and also the fact that markets tend to melt up in a more resilient but persistent manner than they fall.

The raft of economic data and negative comments from John Boehner on the fiscal cliff out in the past 24 hours has really been lost in the milieu including the fall in in European Industrial Production of 1.4% in October and the deterioration in the UK labour market. On the brighter side the highlights were better than expected Japanese Machinery orders for a year on year basis up 1.2% versus -4.4% expected even thought the monthly data was down a little at +2.6% v +3% expected but a nice bounce anyway after last month’s weakness. India also had a big bounce in industrial output and manufacturing output by 8.2% and 9.6% respectively from last months negative prints.

Stocks

Europe was closed by the time that the FOMC statement was released  but they had had a vaguely positive day regardless with the FTSE up 0.35%, the DAX up 0.33% while the CAC was essentially flat rising just 0.01%. Madrid rose by 0.82% while the Italian market rose a stellar 1.15%

In the US with 32 minutes before the close the S&P has fallen back to be up just 0.16% to 1430, the Dow is up only 0.06% and the NASDAQ is actually in the red, down 0.15%.

In Asia yesterday it was a mostly positive day with the Nikkei up 0.58%, Hang Seng up 0.80%, Shanghai rose 0.40% and the Straits Times in Singapore was 0.76% higher. In India the Sensex however fell 0.17% while in Seoul the Kospi rose 0.55%.

In Australia the All Ords continued to grind higher with the All Ords up 0.23% to reach it highest level since July 2011.

Global FX

It has been a night where the previous fear based bids for the USD and the Yen evaporated in the Berlusconi and Monti news with the Euro higher, Aussie higher, Kiwi higher, GBP higher, CAD higher, CHF higher and Yen down.

As I write, the Euro is currently up 0.57% to 1.3079, AUD up 0.37% to 1.0566, GBP is 0.25% higher at 1.6154, USDCAD is down 0.25% at 0.9822 and USDJPY is sharply higher up 0.80% to 83.17 which has of course propelled EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and the other Yen crosses much higher still given the USD was on the back foot against those sides of the Yen crosses in its own right.

Euro dollar rally

But when you look at the EURUSD chart above you have to ask if this isn’t just noise within the range of the last few months. As I wrote before the last Euro reversal only a break of 1.3170/75 (plus your margin for error) will signal a change in trend for the Euro and signal a sharper push higher. Last night’s high was lower that the recently aborted top so I remain of this view.

For the Australian dollar which hit a 9 month high overnight I have a similar view insofar as the call we made yesterday of a run toward 1.06 was coming. As you can see in the chart below like the Euro the Aussie is pulling back as stocks digest the  economic reality over the monetary goosing they are getting.

Australian Dollar rally

 

But as you can see in the chart above the Aussie is still in a grinding uptrend for the moment and while the step up and through the top of the Bollinger band is often a signal for a consolidation/pullback as we are seeing now the overall topside bias remains while equities are doing better. As I wrote in the AUD Cross piece yesterday its pretty much all about stocks and the S&P 500 at the moment.

Commodities

As the US dollar weakened so then many of the US dollar commodities naturally increased their price in US dollars. Crude shook off an increase in EIA inventories of 843,000 Bbl versus expectations of a 2.6 million draw to rise 1.26% to $86.87 Bbl. This has not changed my overall outlook for a move to test trendline support as noted yesterday.

Gold was up 0.34% to $1714 oz. Silver surged 1.96% higher while Copper was up 0.78%.

Datawise

In New Zealand the business PMI and food prices while in Australia we get inflation expectations and new motor vehicle sales. More price data from individual European countries tonight as well as Greek unemployment and then Brazilian retail sales along with retail sales in the US and PPI. Business Inventories and the usual Thursday night Jobless Claims data.

Please Note: All references to rates above are approximate and should not be used for trade reference.

Filed Under: December, Market Wrap Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Vantage FX | Euro Under Pressure | 10th December 2012

December 10, 2012 By

US nonfarm payrolls were surprisingly strong Friday night rising 146,000. Were it not for the fiscal cliff worries and comments from Republican House Leader Boehner saying that President Obama had wasted another week stocks would have been much higher.

But in all likelihood Asia is going to have a positive day given the Chinese data that was out over the weekend. Growth in factory output was up 10.1% year on year at an 8 month high in November. Retail Sales were also out and showed a 14.9% rise from a year ago.

Remember last week we noted that Chinese growth expectations were being revised higher for 2013 – this will reinforce that notion.

Indeed Reuters reported Merrill Lynch said in a note that,

 ”The Chinese economy is now in a sweet spot and can stay in the sweet spot through the first half of 2013,” said Ting Lu, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. “Beijing will be happy to sustain the current policy stance.”

China is drifting in for a soft landing and CPI data also out over the weekend showed just a 2% rise in prices year on year. So it’s growth without inflation.

This is also a positive for the AUD which continues to threaten to break higher and remains well supported.

In Europe, it is a different story however with the Bundesbank downgrading the outlook for German growth and the Technocratic government of Mario Monti under pressure. Even though Greece is said to have almost completed its 30 billion Euro worth of debt buy backs the Euro will remain under pressure as it was on Friday night.

Stocks

At the close US markets were higher with the Dow up more than 80 points or 0.62%, The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 4.13 points, or 0.29 percent, to 1,418.07 while the Nasdaq fell 0.38 percent, to 2,978.04. Stocks in Europe were broadly higher withe the FTSEurofirst 300 index up 0.07%.

FX

As noted above Euro was under pressure trading down to a low of 1.2878. As I have noted recently my overriding belief is the Euro should be lower and the failed break higher and sharp reversal cost my trend following systems a little coin but reinforced this bias.

EURUSD 10th Dec 2012

The chart above of the daily candles from my Vantage mobile platform shows the failed move higher and subsequent reversal. Could Euro have a tripe top and thus a full retracment back toward 1.26? I think so.

For the AUD it is a very different story as it slowly grinds higher from the 1.0150 low a couple of months back.

AUDUSD 10th Dec 2012

The AUD remains well supported and while it continues to have solid overhead resistance in the 1.0525/35 region it seems biased higher into years end.

Commodities

Crude fell 33 cents Bbl to 85.93 while Spot gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,702 an ounce, bouncing back from a one-month low of $1,683.79.

Thoughts, comments, queries together with frank and fearless feedback all welcome. I’m happy to answer questions or comments on the comment stream wherever I can

NB: Please note all references to rates above are approximate and should not be used for trade reference.

Catch me on Twitter @gregorymckenna or @FX_Global

Filed Under: December, Market Wrap Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Vantage FX | AUD at top of the range, Euro broken higher | 5th December 2012

December 5, 2012 By

While equity markets across the globe wait patiently for the outcome of the US fiscal cliff talks FX and commodity markets are pushing on with some important moves.

Euro was higher again and is on its way to test resistance at 1.3175. The Aussie dollar broke sharply higher after the RBA cut yesterday which as counter intuitive as that is speaks volumes about how the market was positioned on the day and gold got hit hard in Asian trade and is now back under $1700 oz.

Datawise overnight the Bank of Canada kept rates at 1% but retained a tightening bias – who can fault the world’s best Central Banker and the next BoE Governor but it still seems pre-emptive to be talking about Canadian rate rises anytime soon. In the US the New York ISM was on a tear rising to 52.5 from the 45.9 last month.

In Europe Finance Ministers once again failed to reach an accord on the banking union/supervision proposals but yields in Spain and Italy continued to rally along with the Milan Stock exchange which was up more than 1%. Peripheral European bonds have rallied hard since the dire weeks markets endured earlier this year and 10 year yields in Italy are now back to their best level in 2 years at 4.41%. Spain isn’t doing quite so well but yields on 10 years at 5.23% are at least at 9 month lows. Driving the better sentiment in these bond markets and in the Euro is the Greek debt buyback plan and the continuing reduction in chances that greece is going to need to leave the Euro any time soon.

Stocks

At the close European stocks were mixed with the FTSE closing at 5869 down just 0.04%, the DAX was flat at 7435 while the CAC rose 0.38% to 3580. In Madrid stocks rose 0.22%.

In the US with 48 minutes to go stocks have improved a little and the S&P is flat at 1409, the Dow is up 16 or 0.12% to 12981 while the NASDAQ is down 0.07%

In Asia the All Ords was the stand out of the bigger markets falling 0.62% after the RBA rate cut. The falls were across the board with materials down 1% and financials off 0.5%. The Small Ords dropped 1.1%! After a two and a half week rally the SPI 200 looks like it might be time for a bit of a consolidation 4495 would need to give way to trigger a deeper retracement. Elsewhere in Asia it was a bit of a hodge podge of moves. The Nikkei fell 0.27%, the Hang Seng rose 0.15%, Shanghai was up 0.78%  while the Kospi dropped 0.25%, Straits Times down 0.12% and the Jakarta was down 0.76%

FX Markets

Three big moves in FX markets in the past 24 hours. Euro has broken higher again and taken out the second of the major trendlines that was constraining it, the Aussie market seems to have been punting on a bigger cut and got caught short for a decent rally back to the range top and the decision by UBS to start charging for deposits has put some interest back into the USDCHF rate and EURCHF rate. Euro rally

Looking at the Euro first we can see in the chart above that the second of the two trendlines we’ve been watching has now been breached in the general USD weakness. As I noted yesterday the trend following side of my already has longs on and stops in placec but the subjective side of me is not getting too bullish unless or until I see a break of the recent range top around 1.3170.

Aussie Rallies sharply

For the Aussie dollar I have to admit I completely misread the market positioning yesterday after the resiliency that it had showed the previous night. I can’t believe that anyone who heard Glenn Stevens speech recently at CEDA could have thought for a second that the RBA was going to cut 50 basis points at 2.30 pm yesterday but as you can see in the 15 minute chart above after a short spike lower when the RBA mentioned the too high AUD the market ramped higher and has stayed higher, after a brief retest of the old trendline, for most of the night.

So the AUD is now back at the top of the range and sits at  1.0477 up 0.58% on the day. 1.0489 is the recent range top and and any further push higher will rely on extended USD weakness or a positive surprise to GDP to be released at 11.30am today. If 89/83 gives way the next level is 1.0535. I will discuss the Aussie and Cross outlook in more depth in the AUD Cross post later this morning.

Elsewhere USDJPY is retracing as I have been expecting and it is off 0.45% at 81.86. GBP has hardly moved at 1.6102 and USDCAD is down 0.25%.

Commodities

Gold got poll axed yesterday afternoon in Asia and sits at $1695 oz down 1.42% but it was nothing compared to silvers fall of 2.81% to $32.72 oz. As you can see in the gold chart below it now looks biased back toward the $1670 region at a minimum. Gold falls sharply

Elsewhere crude rejected the trendline as discussed yesterday and is off 0.66% to $88.50 Bbl. Corn and Wheat were off 0.60% and 0.68% repsectively while Soybeans rose 0.02%.

Datawise In Australia we GDP which is always interesting straight after an RBA move so the market will be watching that closely. The market is expecting another rise of 0.6% for a 3.2% annualised return. In Europe tonight we get the Markit services PMI and then in the US we get a pointer to non-farm payrolls with the release of the ADP employment survey together with factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Thoughts, comments, queries together with frank and fearless feedback all welcome. I’m happy to answer questions or comments on the comment stream wherever I can

NB: Please note all references to rates above are approximate and should not be used for trade reference.

H/T to Global Macro Monitor for today’s toon picture

Filed Under: December, Market Wrap Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Vantage FX | Stocks, Yen and Aussie dollar down again | 16th November 2012

November 16, 2012 By

The Yen was the big story of the past 24 hours as expectations grow that the BOJ is about to man the monetary pump once more but equally it was another weak night on European stock markets after the Eurozone GDP confirmed that Europe is in the technical definition of recession and it became clear that the IMF has had enough of the European Commisions bumbling handling of the Greek debt crisis.  Israeli rhetoric and actions in Gaza haven’t helped the tone of the markets either while in the US data wasn’t too flash either but their stock markets have been able to hold up relatively well even with a negative bias.

Looking at the European data we see that the Eurozone reported growth of -0.1% in Q3 which on top of the -0.2% for Q2 satisfies the economists technical definition of recession but I’m guessing the 80 million Europeans out of work might already know that. Looking at the specific country GDP’s Germany and France printed growth of 0.2% which was on the money for Germany but a positive surprise for France. In Spain GDP contracted 0.3% for a year on year fall of 1.6%. Italy is under real pressure falling 0.2% which was much better than the half a percent fall the punditry expected but its annual contraction stayed at 2.4%. In the UK we didn’t get GDp but retail sales were much weaker than expected printing -0.8% in October against expectations of a flat result.

In other data we saw CPI for Europe and the US which was 1.5% and 2.2% yoy respectively. So no inflation pressure there. Jobless Claims were also out in the US and showed a huge surge to 439,000 from 375,000 previously but I think we can blame Sandy for this one. What Sandy can’t be blamed for though is the huge drop in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey from 5.7 last month to -10.7 in November. The New York Empire State manufacturing index was -5.22 which is a little better than expected.

So all in all a very poor night for data and a bad night for European and US bourses again.

Stocks

At the close of play in Europe losses were across the board the FTSE down 0.77%, the DAX fell 0.52% and the CAC was off 0.52%. Amsterdam was hit hard falling 1.79% after the weak Dutch GDP of -1.01% result but Madrid managed to buck the trend up 0.29%

In the US with 22 minutes to go  the S&P 500 is down 0.48% at 1349, the Dow Jones is 0.54% lower and the NASDAQ is off 0.68%. It’s been a very weak start to November indeed.

In Asia yesterday the Nikkei roared higher as the spectre of Money Printing by the BOJ captured the headlines after more comments from the putative Prime Minister Shinzo Abe continued his push for unlimited Yen. A weaker Yen might just get some competitiveness back into Japanese companies which have clearly lost their innovative Mojo over the past half decade or more – walkman or iPod – so at the close the Nikkei was up 1.90%. The rest of Asia, including our own ASX All Ords were largely lower – the ASX was down 0.91%, Kospi fell 1.23%, Straits Times fell 1.08% and Shanghai fell 1.22%.

FX Markets

While all the news is about the Yen today I want to focus on the Aussie Dollar because readers know that I am of the view the USDJPY is headed over time back toward 100. Levels are 82, 84, 93 then 99 longer term.

But lets look at the AUD which after weeks of ignoring the weak equity market and its sharp selloff has finally had a sell off of its own over the last day or so. Sure the low of 1.0306 overnight is not really that bad when compared to the recent high of 1.0458 just the night before nor even last weeks high around 1.0480 but the questions must be asked as to whether the Aussie might be in for a round of selling.

AUD USD

Now of course it could head lower now that it has broken the uptrend line and I am looking for a move to the mid 1.0250 region and possibly a retest toward the bottom of the recent range at 1.0150.

More medium term though the outlook for equities is the key – again in the US early strength has given way to weakness toward the close and the S&P 500 below 1350 is flashing a warning and I do expect it to head another 100 points lower eventually. Should this come to pass it will really test the Aussie’s status as a safe harbour for e little while because it would signal a real risk off event and buyers would pull their heads in and the specs who are long would need to liquidate. Key here though is that the Sovereigns and Central banks who have so much AUD will not be spooked so even a full on risk off event is not going to see AUD at 60 cents.

On this the catalyst or excuse for some of the past 24 hours selling appears to have been the release of the RBA data on its transactions with the market which showed that it purchased a net $483 million worth of Foreign Currency last month, sold AUD. Some have characterised this as intervention but I would simply say that $483 million is not a lot in the context of a days trade let alone 1 month. I personally sold more than double that amount on one day back more than a decade ago when volumes were lighter with no real lasting impact – so its not intervention, its just leaning against the wind and building up a war chest for when they need to intervene to support the Aussie in the future or where they can make some profits turning the position.

EURJPY

Elsewhere the Euro continued its technical rally against the USD which is in no small part aided by the strong run up in EURJPY which you can see in the chart above. It’s incongrous for the Euro to rally after that poor GDP data last night but equally if think of the surprise in the data and so how the market might react we see that the overall Eurozone result along with that of France and Germany were at or better than expectations which helps explain the EUR strength a little better. GBP also had a better night than could have been expected given the weak retail sales but this one is still pointed lower.

Commodities

On commodity markets the Nymex crude was off 1.23% to $85.26 Bbl and it hasn’t really gone anywhere for a while now. Gold fell 0.94% but Silver somehow rose 1.21% which seems incongrous but needs investigation. Copper was up marginally and the Ags were down again. Soybeans fell 1.07%, Corn dropped 0.62% and Wheat fell 0.38%.

Datawise There are a few Fed guys talking today in our timezone then I’ll be watching the EU trade balance tonight and then US IP tonight.

Thoughts, comments, queries together with frank and fearless feedback all welcome. I’m happy to answer questions or comments on the comment stream wherever I can

NB: Please note all references to rates above are approximate and should not be used for trade reference.

Catch me on Twitter @gregorymckenna or @FX_Global

Filed Under: Market Wrap, November Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,

Vantage FX | Stocks plunge, Aussie Dollar falls | 15th November 2012

November 15, 2012 By

Markets continued their downbeat tone overnight as data out of Europe and the US was on the weak side of weak and concerns about the fiscal cliff also weighed on traders and investors minds.

Clearly now any resolution in Greece or Spain’s troubles or a compromise on the Fiscal cliff is going to catch the bears and gore them badly but for the moment neither of these positive catalysts seems close at hand so the weak data flow just reinforces the markets negativity.

Speaking of data even though the UK unemployment rate at 7.8% was a little better than expected the increase of 10,800 in the claimant count was a concern and the recent uptick in inflation from 2.2% in September to 2.7% in October has people questioning the BoE’s strategy. Personally I think they want inflation a little higher, or at least they did until the UK Government made the grab for cash from the BOE last week – effectively loosening policy. Elsewhere Portuguese GDP contracted 0.8% on the quarter and 3.4% year on year, Eurozone industrial production fell 2.5% in September (wow!) while in the US PPI was subdued up just 2.3% yoy but down 0.2% in October. Retail sales were flat ex-auto’s but down 0.3% if they are included for October.

So pretty down beat all around and no wonder stocks were under pressure.

Yesterday I wrote that perhaps the S&P 500 was trying to base and may bounce a little. Writing when the market is still open is problematic so when the days gains evaporated in the last hour of trade and the market came under intense pressure I thought – uh oh, here we go. For those of us who have been around for a while that type of end of day move flashes a warning about market structure and sentiment. So I found it interesting this morning to see on Business Insider a quote from Art Chasin of UBS who is one of the NYSE’s “old guys” really intersting. Art pulled out something that he wrote in late 2007,

Longtime readers know of the value we place in final hour action. Stock trading is a bit like playing poker. Throughout the session you can bluff and posture revealing only part of your intentions, hoping to confuse your adversaries. Your only liability is the clock. If you have not accomplished your goal by the time the bell rings, you have failed.

Therefore, old traders see the final minutes of trading as truth time. The bluffing and posturing is cast aside. Folks do what they need to do to get the trade on the tape. Everything up until then is a stage play. That’s why the action in the final thirty minutes both yesterday and Friday is of concern to old fogeys.

Recently I have been writing that I thought this earnings season had the potential to see the market react as it did during Q3 earnings season in 2007 and so far we have seen that. Companies have disappointed on top line revenues at an alarming rate and although things have improved recently overall the market has followed the script – lack of revenue is a big fundamental to ignore. So stocks are off and very close to breaking down for another leg – 1362 is a key level for me as it was last weeks low and also a key fibonacci extension of the recent sell off bounce and sell off again.

S&P 500

As I write it is not looking good as you can see on the chart above but its the close that matters today – just as Art Cashin says.

Stocks

At the close of play in Europe losses were across the board except for Oslo which bucked the trend rising 0.16%. In the UK however the FTSE was off 1.11%, the DAX dropped 0.94% while the CAC was 0.89% lower. Madrid was only off 0.30%. One thing about Europe is that the big strikes and skirmishes across Spain and other centres in Europe in anti-austerity protests suggests to me that Spain is only going to ask for a bailout if it is truly forced to – and it is not apparent yet that Spanish PM Rajoy feels that yet – so the European woes are set to endure.

In the US with 35 minutes to go the S&P has broken my 1362 level down 17 points or 1.24% to 1357. The dow is off 1.29% and the NASDAQ off 1.15%.

In Asia yesterday it was a bit of a mixed bag with the Nikkei essentially flat up 0.04%, but the Hang Seng rose 1.20% while thr Straits Times fell 0.98%. Jakarta was up 0.44% and Shanghai rose 0.37%. The All Ords on the ASX was up 0.15% and no doubt it, like the rest of Asia today, will be under pressure from the weakness in the US and Europe overnight.

FX Markets

Big news in FX overnight has been the move higher by USDJPY as the Yen weakened with the announcement of an election which is widely tipped to see the incumbents lose power and usher in a more stimulatory friendly regime under the Liberal Democratic Party lead by Shinzo Abe. The Reuters reported this morning that Mr Abe called on the BOJ to print unlimited Yen. Recently he called for inflation to be pushed to 3%!

USD JPY

Clearly the USDJPY hasn’t broken recent highs yet but it looks on track to the high 83 region to me and eventually 100 as I wrote recently. It won”t be linear and it will probably not be an easy trade if the Stock Markets continue to sell off but as I also noted recently this is a portfolio position for me now.

Elsewhere on the Global FX landscape GBP came under pressure and EURGBP is back testing the trendline it broke down through. This is usually a good type of level to but up against for a short but if it breaks a move above 82 is on the cards. The EUR had a better day and back above the little two week downtrend but off its highs for the night at 1.2777 sitting at 1.2753 – this rally might have legs for another day or so – strange as that may seem.

AUD USD

For the Australian dollar the strong support seemed to evaporate under the weight of the equally strong selling in the 1.0440/50 region over the past few days. The high of 1.0458  was very short lived and looked like it might have been a London Fix play because it then proceed to trade down from that very point – interesting! Anyway the focus is now back on the bottom of the pennant, sort of, formation which comes in at 1.0362 today. For me a break of 1.0355 would be needed to kick AUD lower and 1.0325/30 is fibonacci support and if that gives way I’m looking for a much deeper retracement.

Commodities

Crude was up and this is being blamed on the Israeli air strikes in Gaza and general tensions in the region. That might be the case but technically it simply looks like Crude has built a support zone from which it is trying to rally even if overall momentum is flat. Crude is up 1% or 85 cents Bbl to $86.21. Gold is unchanged, the Ags were quite but Cocoa and Orange juice were both up more than 3% – I love commodities, so many opportunities for technical or systematic traders.

Datawise In New Zealand we get Business PMI, in Australia we get consumer inflation expectations and New Motor Vehicle sales (I guessing on a lower number based on the 0% financing ads I’m seeing). Tonight we get GDP data in France, Germany, Italy and Spain as well as retail sales in the UK. In the US we’ll be watching CPI and jobless claims data as well as the Empire Manufacturing Index.

Thoughts, comments, queries together with frank and fearless feedback all welcome. I’m happy to answer questions or comments on the comment stream wherever I can

NB: Please note all references to rates above are approximate and should not be used for trade reference.

Filed Under: Market Wrap, November Tagged With: , , , , , , ,
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