2011 June

Greece Approves Austerity Package | June 30, 2011

June 30, 2011 By Vantage FX

The AUDUSD is continuing to rally and has passed its 10 day high and is currently testing the 1.07 level

Asian stocks are pointing to a slightly higher open Thursday as US markets rose overnight in choppy conditions as the Greek parliament austerity package is approved and Bank of America reach an $8.5 billion settlement on investor claims over securities purchased before the U.S. housing-market collapse. The Dow rose 72 points to 12261 while the S&P500 rose 0.80% to 1307. These upward moves put the US indices on track for their biggest weekly gains since March.

The EURUSD broke through the two week highs of 1.4430 after trading as low as 1.4325 early in the US session as the Greek politicians ignore the widespread rioting and passed the bill that will keep the country from defaulting in the short term. All eyes are now focusing on the upcoming Sunday meeting of the Euro-zone finance ministers to plan the second bailout. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was quoted as saying that Greece’s approval of new austerity measures is an important step for the country and for the stability of the euro as a whole.

It has now rallied 310 pips in the last three days, the next level of resistance is around the 1.0740 level.

Gold and Silver both rose overnight being lifted by the weakening dollar. Gold is now back trading above its technical resistance level of $1,500.

INDICES
	Last Traded
SPI 200	4546
S&P500 Index	1304.50
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	12215
FTSE 100 Index	5826

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1512
Oil (Nymex)	95.20

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0685
EURUSD	1.4462
GBPUSD	1.6064
USDJPY	80.76

Filed Under: June Tagged With: Angela Merkel, asian stocks, AUDUSD, austerity measures, austerity package, Bank of America, currency trading, Dow, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, Euro, euro zone, EURUSD, Finance Minister, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, German Chancellor, Gold, Greece, Greek Parliament, market wrap, Nymex, Oil, S&P500 Index, silver, SPI 200, US housing market collapse, US markets, US session, USDJPY, vantage fx

Markets Rally As Investors Continue To Look At Greece | June

June 29, 2011 By Vantage FX

The EURUSD rose overnight to end the US session above 1.4350 level

The Australia equity market points to a strong open after the US markets had their strongest session in over two months, the Dow rising 145 points to 12188 and the S&P500 gaining 16.0 points to 1296.60. Investors seemed to be in a buying frenzy after many of the German banks agreed in principle to roll over $10 billion in Greek government debt.

The EURUSD (see above chart) rose overnight to end the US session above 1.4350 level as investors growing hopes that Greece would pass austerity measures, if this fails the country will go bankrupt within two weeks. In other news the US home prices rose for the first time in seven months although this improvement will need adjusting due the spring summer buying season.

The AUDUSD rallied from a low yesterday low of 1.4237, it is currently trading on its highs of 1.0545. The Aussie has been one of the hardest hit currencies since the Greece crisis as investors have begun to worry that the RBA will not be tightening monetary policy any time soon and rather there is a possibility that there could be loosening within the year.

WTI crude oil was up over 2.5 percent in overnight trade which is its biggest one day gain since mid May, this is on the back of the weak dollar optimism about the Greeks ability to avoid default.

INDICES
	Last Traded
SPI 200	4519
S&P500 Index	1293
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	12130
FTSE 100 Index	1293

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1501.5
Oil (Nymex)	93.10

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0538
EURUSD	1.4353
GBPUSD	1.5985
USDJPY	81.07

Filed Under: June Tagged With: AUDUSD, Aussie, austerity measures, Australia equity market, bankruptcy, crude oil, currency trading, debt crisis, dollar, Dow, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, EURUSD, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, German banks, Gold, Greece, Greek debt, market wrap, monetary policy, Nymex, Oil, RBA, S&P500, S&P500 Index, SPI 200, US Home PRices, US markets, US session, USDJPY, vantage fx, WTI crude oil

US Rally As Regulators Move To Safeguard Global Banking System | June 28, 2011

June 28, 2011 By Vantage FX

The EURUSD has continued to rally from yesterday's lows of 1.4104 to finish the US session above the 1.43 level

The Australian equity market is expected to gap higher this morning after the US stocks rallied for the first time in four sessions Monday evening as financial stocks jumped on banking capital requirements being less onerous than expected. The Dow finished up 108 points at 12043 while the S&P500 index rose 11.75 points to 1280.10.

The EURUSD (see above chart) has continued to rally from yesterday’s lows of 1.4104 to finish the US session above the 1.43 level on the back of hopes that the austerity plan could pass in the Greek parliament later this week. Investors seem to be upbeat about the proposed broad plan with the EU guaranteeing to roll over the Greek debt at expiry in 2014.

The AUDUSD bounced off an overnight low of 1.0392 which was weakest level against the US in over two months as investors consider the potential for an unwinding of at least some of the central bank’s recent tightening.

Gold declined $4.50 on Monday morning to close below $1,500 for the first time in over one month as the recent gains in the US dollar eroded the demand for the metal. A survey conducted by UBS AG saw that sovereign institutions expected Gold to be the best performing asset for the rest of the year.

WTI Oil dropped to a low 89.65, this is the lowest level in more than four months as US data showed that consumer spending had declined last month and after the International Energy Agency said it’s prepared to release more crude from stockpiles.

INDICES
	Last Traded
SPI 200	4490
S&P500 Index	1278.50
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	12012
FTSE 100 Index	5708

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1498.80
Oil (Nymex)	91.32

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0463
EURUSD	1.4315
GBPUSD	1.5988
USDJPY	80.83

Filed Under: June Tagged With: AUDUSD, austerity plan, Australian equity market, banking capital requirements, Central Bank, consumer spending, crude, currency trading, debt rollover, Dow, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, EU, EURUSD, financial stocks, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, Gold, Greek debt, Greek Parliament, International Energy Agency, market wrap, metal, Nymex, Oil, S&P500, SPI 200, UBS AG, US data, US Dollar, US session, US stocks, USDJPY, vantage fx, WTI oil

Weak Across Board As Italian Banks Hit Hard | June 27, 2011

June 27, 2011 By Vantage FX

The EURCHF opened up Monday morning trade at new all time lows of 1.1829

U.S. stock finished the week lower as several major banks in Italy suspended their stocks after a sudden drop in their share price with unconfirmed rumors that those banks were undergoing a “stress test” and they wouldn’t pass it. Moody then come out and warned that there could be a need to cut the credit rating of many of the Italian banks. The Dow finished down 115 to close at 11934.while the S&P500 finished at 1,268, a drop of over one percent.

The EURCHF (see chart above) opened up Monday morning trade at new all time lows of 1.1829. The EURUSD has traded off 20 points and is currently sitting above key support levels of 1.4160. Greece’s deputy prime minister warned that rebel lawmakers could possibly block some reforms that are being sought by international lenders involved in the deal.

USDJPY continues to range trade between 80.75 and 80.15. Trader will be looking to get some direction from the retail sales out on early today and then look to Thursday for the key weekly event, the Tankan Manufacturing Index.

Gold finished off the week by dropping over 1 percent to finish in negative territory and wipe out all the gains from earlier in the weeks trade. Gold is currently sitting above the key physiological support levels of 1500.

INDICES
	Last Traded
SPI 200	4455
S&P500 Index	1261
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	11850
FTSE 100 Index	5653

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1500
Oil (Nymex)	90.82

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0475
EURUSD	1.4175
GBPUSD	1.5962
USDJPY	80.46

Filed Under: June Tagged With: AUDUSD, Credit Rating, currency trading, Deputy Prime Minister, Dow, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, EURCHF, EURUSD, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, Gold, Greece, Italian banks, Italy, Moody, Nymex, Oil, S&P500, share price, SPI 200, Tankan Manufacturing Index, US Stock, USDJPY, vantage fx

Volatile Markets See Nymex Crude Drop Over 5% | June 24, 2011

June 24, 2011 By Vantage FX

WTI crude futures fell over 5% to lows of below $90 a barrel

The U.S. stock market ended the overnight session small down after an evening of volatile trading, the Dow settled down 0.50%, to 12050, after recovering from a low of 11874 while the S&P500 index dropped 3.5 points.

The Euro which traded as low as 1.4127 overnight has rallied above the 1.4250 level on the back of reports that suggest Greece has had an agreement with the team of EU-IMF inspectors for its new five-year austerity plan after committing to an additional round of taxes and widespread spending cuts.

GBPUSD traded to a low of 1.5934, the break below the 1.6000 level is the first time since early April following weaker data from the retail sector early in the European session.

WTI crude futures fell over 5% to lows of below $90 a barrel overnight after the International Energy Agency announced that they would release 60 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserves of 28 nations over the next month. The decision was aimed to offset market disruptions prompted by the war in Libya, this is only the third time the IEA has undertaken such a collective action.

Gold and Silver both tumbled after the IEA announcement intensified investor expectations of lower inflation.

INDICES
	Last Traded
SPI 200	4487
S&P500 Index	1281
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	12008
FTSE 100 Index	5686

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1522
Oil (Nymex)	91.80

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0542
EURUSD	1.4274
GBPUSD	1.6025
USDJPY	80.44

Filed Under: June Tagged With: AUDUSD, austerity plan, barrel, crude, crude oil, currency trading, Dow, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, EU, Euro, European session, EURUSD, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, Gold, Greece, IEA, IMF, inflation, International Energy Agency, Libya, market wrap, Nymex, Oil, petroleum reserves, S&P500 Index, silver, spending cuts, SPI 200, tax, US Stock Market, USDJPY, vantage fx, volatile trading, WTI, WTI crude

Markets Fall As Feds Cut Growth Outlook | June 23, 2011

June 23, 2011 By Vantage FX

GBPUSD traded from a high of 1.6260 during yesterdays Asian session to brake the technical support level of 1.61, it is currently trading around the 1.6050 level.

The U.S. markets all finished lower overnight, the Dow Jones falling 80 points to settle at 12109, while the S&P 500 index dropped 8.3 points after the Federal Reserve issued a cautious economic outlook. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke nullified suggestions about another round on bond buying quoting “deep reluctance to go down the road of QE3.”

The Sterling lost a lot of ground against its major rivals overnight after the Bank of England published their dovish minutes Wednesday evening, the policy judged that “current weakness in demand growth was likely to persist longer than previously thought.” GBPUSD traded from a high of 1.6260 during yesterdays Asian session to brake the technical support level of 1.61, it is currently trading around the 1.6050 level.

The AUDUSD is currently trading at a support level of 1.05560, this is 100 points lower than a high in early US trade session. This seems to be in response to the realisation that the Greek confidence vote was merely the first hurdle in the race to prevent a Greek financial crisis turning into a global problem

Gold futures spiked to a high of $1559 an ounce on the back of the Federal Open Market Committee leaving the monetary policy unchanged but subsequently pulled back $10 throughout the rest of the US session to settle at $1548.

INDICES
	Last Traded
SPI 200	4512
S&P500 Index	1274.8
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	11984
FTSE 100 Index	5724

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1548
Oil (Nymex)	94.14

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0556
EURUSD	1.4324
GBPUSD	1.6060
USDJPY	80.38

Filed Under: June Tagged With: Asian session, AUDUSD, Bank of England, Ben Bernanke, bond purchasing, currency trading, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, EURUSD, Fed Chairman, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, Gold, gold futures, Greek confidence vote, Greek debt, market wrap, monetary policy, Nymex, Oil, QE3, Quantitative Easing, S&P 500 Index, SPI 200, Sterling, technical support, US markets, US session, USDJPY, vantage fx

Greek Parliament Backs Prime Ministers Cabinet | June 22, 2011

June 22, 2011 By Vantage FX

The EURUS traded to a high above the 1.4420 level overnight.

The US equities were strong overnight with the Dow Jones closing up 109 points while the SP500 index rose 17 points. This is now the fourth consecutive day that the US markets have risen and once again is on the back of investors positive thoughts on the survival of Greece.

As expected Greece’s Prime Ministers new cabinet received the vote of confidence from parliament 155-143. This is seen as a crucial hurdle towards approving the country’s austerity package and restarting the flow of bailout funds which is currently been held by the EU and IMF. Ahead of the vote, acting IMF head John Lipsky said that the program outlined for Greece could work and it would prevent a default.

The EURUSD (see above chart) traded to a high above the 1.4420 level overnight. Currently the EUR is not reacting as positively as expected and is trading below the 1.4385 level. Morgan Stanley on Tuesday scaled back its year end EUR forecast to 1.36 due to Greece-related and economic-growth concerns. This is 0.13 lower than their previous projected level of 1.49 at year end.

The AUDUSD rose to a high of 1.0620 in the US trading session overnight from a low of 1.0532 during yesterdays Asian session after the Reserve Bank said that it would maintain the 4.75% benchmark in the face of a potential worsening European debt drama.

Gold futures locked in its sixth positive day as the dollar weakened on the back of the confidence vote.

INDICES
	Last Traded
SPI 200	4540
S&P500 Index	1287.5
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	12092
FTSE 100 Index	5749

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1547
Oil (Nymex)	93.75

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0592
EURUSD	1.4375
GBPUSD	1.6225
USDJPY	80.22

Filed Under: June Tagged With: Asian trading session, AUDUSD, austerity package, bailout funds, cabinet, confidence vote, currency trading, dollar, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, economic growth, EU, EUR, european debt, EURUSD, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, Gold, gold futures, Greece, Greek Prime Minister, IMF, John Lipsky, market wrap, Morgan Stanley, Nymex, Oil, parliament, Reserve Bank, S&P500, S&P500 Index, SPI 200, US equities, US markets, US trading session, USDJPY, vantage fx

Euro Bounces on Assurances of Greece Solution | June 21, 2011

June 21, 2011 By Vantage FX

The EURUSD recovered somewhat from the overnight lows at key support levels of 1.4190 to settle at above the 1.4300 level

The SP500 index traded 60 points higher overnight, this is the third consecutive daily gain. Many traders are have been calling this a small relief rally as the leaders from around Europe are at least in the short term getting closer to solution.

The EURUSD (shown in the chart above) recovered somewhat from the overnight lows at key support levels of 1.4190 to settle at above the 1.4300 level. The bounce come as assurances that a satisfactory solution can be reached for Greece, the situation seems to be a simple fix, the Greek Parliament has two weeks to approve a range of spending cuts and tax hikes to the value €78 billion and approve the sale of state-owned assets. If these are met they will get additional funds of €12 Billion by mid-July.

Gold and Silver were reasonably flat overnight while the CRB index which is a measures of 19 hard and soft commodities had a small rise of 0.2 percent. Traders have a lot questions about the outlook of not only the Europeans but also the outlook for the US economy and many are hoping to get answers from Bernanke’s press conference, which will follow the FOMC statement on Wednesday.

At the close of trading the AUDUSD had bounced to above the 1.0600 from a low below the 1.0500 level. This morning at 11.30am the Reserve Bank will be releasing the minutes from its June meeting and it is anticipated that they will will signal Tuesday that interest rates are set to rise in coming months.

The USDJPY was slightly weaker overnight in choppy trade as it lost some of its safe-haven premium. Japan is heavily indebted and struggling to recover from March’s earthquake and tsunami.

INDICES
	Last Traded
SPI 200	4482
S&P500 Index	1273
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	12008
FTSE 100 Index	5665

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1540
Oil (Nymex)	93.70

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0588
EURUSD	1.4317
GBPUSD	1.6205
USDJPY	80.27

Filed Under: June Tagged With: AUDUSD, Bernanke, commodities, CRB index, currency trading, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, Europe, EURUSD, FOMC, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, Gold, Greek Parliament, Japan, market wrap, Nymex, Oil, Reserve Bank, S&P500 Index, silver, spending cuts, SPI 200, state-owned assets, tax hikes, US Economy, USDJPY, vantage fx

June 20, 2011 By Vantage FX

The Greek situation remains the talk of the currency markets as Euro-zone finance ministers continue negotiations late into the Sunday evening. Alan Greenspan warned that a default by Greece would more than likely drag the U.S economy into recession, his comments although likely to be correct have not had such an effect as the German Chancellor Merkel said she’s willing to compromise on demands for bondholders to carry the burden and asks instead for purely a voluntary participation by private creditors.

The AUDUSD was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Merkel confidences and we have seen it turn from a low of below the 1.05 level to finish the Fridays session above the1.0610 level. On the open of the Australia equity market on Monday we are seeing levels of 1.0610.

Gold has held its ground over the last week and ranged traded between levels of 1,528 to 1,554. Silver has been tracking Gold and closed the week down 0.5%. Traders will be concentrating on three major points in the markets this week.

1) The outlook for global growth

2) Chinese range of data out this week

3) The handling of Greece debt

INDICES
	Last Traded	Change %
SPI 200	4482	+0.07
S&P500 Index	1262.5	-0.28
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	11908	-0..25
FTSE 100 Index	5667	+0.04

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded
Gold	1538
Oil (Nymex)	36.06

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded
AUDUSD	1.0604
EURUSD	1.4279
GBPUSD	1.6167
USDJPY	80.09

Filed Under: June Tagged With: Alan Greenspan, AUDUSD, Australia, bondholders, Chinese data, currency markets, currency trading, equity market, euro zone, Finance Ministers, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, German Chancellor Merkel, global growth outlook, Gold, Greece, Greek debt, market wrap, Merkel, recession, silver, US Economy, vantage fx

US Bounced With Cautions | June 17, 2011

June 17, 2011 By Vantage FX

USDJPY Asian strength could not last through the US session as it sold off steadily to lose 40 points approximately.

Markets traded in the mixed last nights as it bounced slightly from yesterday allowing the SP500 and Dow both to have gained 0.54% and 0.18% respectively. The upside moves were supported by very thin volumes, hence lacking the conviction that could proves potential recovery, which it did not. Moreover, the choppy move was actually behind “quadruple witching”, where expiries of multiple contracts are coming up and hence traders are unwind or rolling into new contracts. Given the lack of fundamental for this upside movements, there will still be a downside risk and selling pressure is still very much alive.

EUR’s reaction last night was no surprise, sustaining its declination and had the EURUSD fell as much as 1% in the early part of the session. The pressures saw EURUSD to trade near the 1.047 mark before regaining some of its losses to rally 0.2% on the back of speculation that both EU and IMF may assist Greece and preventing default.

AUDUSD capitulated through to 1.05 just before the US opens to trade near 1.0475. This weakness was the same as any other currencies, cautioning the potential disaster in Greece. However, AUDUSD made some gains to trade above 1.05 running into some resistances at 1.0555 up until near the final quarter of the session where a 60 points sell offs eventuated before it found some support at 1.05 and rebounded to session highs. The AUDUSD is proving to be resilient and directionless to a certain extent. This motion will continues into the next session and until Monday comes, which would have been after the Greek meeting this Sunday, where the Finance minister will shed some lights on how Greece will finance their debts, some direction will be provided to AUD.

USDJPY Asian strength could not last through the US session as it sold off steadily to lose 40 points approximately. The weakness in this pair has been mentioned in the last couple of reports and we envisage that it will always attempt to run the downside at every chance it gets.

In the next 24 hours, the majority of activities will be based on two things; Greek’s crisis and quadruple witching. No fundamental announcements will be made until Japan releases its trade numbers coming Monday.

INDICES
	Last Traded	Change %
SPI 200	4479.20	-1.92
S&P500 Index	1267.64	0.18
Dow Jones Indus. Avg	11961.52	0.54
FTSE 100 Index	5698.81	-0.76

COMMODITIES
	Last Traded	Change %
Gold	1528.8	-0.07
Oil (Nymex)	95.16	0.22

CURRENCIES
	Last Traded	Change %
AUDUSD	1.0563	0.05
EURUSD	1.4205	0.02
GBPUSD	1.6166	0.05
USDJPY	80.61	0.02

Filed Under: June Tagged With: AUD, AUDUSD, currency trading, default, Dow, Dow Jones Indus. Avg, downside risk, EU, EUR, EURUSD, Finance Minister, Foreign Exchange, forex, forex market wrap, FTSE 100 Index, GBPUSD, Gold, Greece, IMF, Japan trade figures, market wrap, Nymex, Oil, quadruple witching, S&P500, S&P500 Index, selling pressure, SPI 200, thin volume, US, USDJPY, vantage fx