Middle East Fears Stress The Markets | January 31, 2011

Gold

Good morning. Equity and Commodity markets were rocked by political fears in the Middle east and lower than forecast GDP results on Friday. Reporting a 3.2% rise in Gross Domestic Product for the period, traders were anxious over the long term outlook. The result was slightly below the 3.5% level that had been estimated by the market. Concerns that Egypt may lead to a further political contagion in the region helped support the safety assets, including bonds and currencies.

On the equity market front, the S&P500 fell 1.7% with a severe drop in risk appetite leading to a cross sector selloff. The shipping and logistics industries however bucked the trend with traders speculating that there could be a rise in alternative shipping avenues due to the Suez Canal shutdown. Affected by the Egypt political crisis, Apache Group weakened during afternoon trade on Friday. Falling 1.2%, analysts cited that the company relies on ¼ of its total revenues from the region.

On the currency front, the greenback rose against the Canadian dollar on friday with GDP data helping support the move. A rise in commodity prices did not have an effect on the CAD, with traders concentrating on comments from Finance Minister Flaherty. Emphasising the importance of a healthy currency range, the minister was accepting of the recent apprecation in the CAD. He also noted that the USDCAD could fall further in light of recent economic conditions. The USDCAD bucked the trend and rose to 0.9985 during the afternoon session. The Japanese Yen experienced a significant turn around in trade on friday with the currency rising to 82.07. After a disappointing sovereign rating downgrade in the previous session, traders used the opportunity to open new positions in the yen. Speculation that the government may be required to step up reform both on a fiscal and monetary basis helped boost the currency. An appreciating currency has also meant that corporate earnings have been influenced greatly, which has concerned the BOJ and economists.

Sovereign Woes For Japanese Economy | January 28, 2011

USDJPY

Good morning. Equity markets were slightly firmer during the afternoon session on Thursday with economic news confusing the markets. Announcing that weekly Jobless Claims rose 50,000, the Labour Department was also concerned over the ensuing weather conditions in the northern states and how this might affect productivity. Pending Home Sales were above initial forecasts with a 2.0% rise for the period. Some economists highlight that this figure is a key barometer for economic health, as it highlights the growth in a number of home and finance related sectors. Durable Goods Orders however disappointed the market with a 2.5% contraction in December. The transportation sector was key contributor to the fall with Boeing forecast to sell more airplanes during the month. In Asia, Japan’s sovereign rating was revised with S&P downgrading to AA-. This signified a real perceived risk in the Asian powerhouse due to export weakness. Tomorrow GDP figures will be released in the US, with economists expecting a 3.7% rise.

On the equity market front, the Dow Jones rose 8 points late in the session, with mixed corporate and economic news clouding trading. Proctor and Gamble weighed on the index with the company announcing earnings that fell shy of estimates. Citing a significant rise in commodity costs, P&G was optimistic on the long term outlook. The stock fell 3.2%. Telecommunications Company Nokia also found some pressure during the session, with disappointing results impacting the stock.

On the currency front, the announcement that Japan’s sovereign rating would be downgraded by S&P pushed the USDJPY higher on Thursday. According to the Wall Street Journal, speculation hit the news wires early on in the day, with volatility and volume rising considerably. Trading at 82.98, the currency rallied sharply, with traders selling their yen positions and moving into the greenback. Officially the ratings agency has announced that it will release their notes over the next few days.  Fiscal measures aimed at supporting the Queensland floods had a slight impact on the currency on Thursday. Touching parity once again, the AUDUSD fell to 0.99087. With a $1.8 billion tax effectively introduced to rebuild the flood damaged state, economists and traders were sceptical on the impact of the move to the budget deficit and growth. Lacklustre session on the commodity front also had a dampening effect on the Aussie during the day.

 

US Economic Uncertainty and The Euro | January 27, 2011

EURUSD

Good morning. Equity and Commodity markets were unable to find consistency on Wednesday with buoyant corporate earnings and housing data having little impact. With a public holiday in Australia, mixed economic announcements in the US and Europe pushed the indices into a range. Announcing a 18% rise in New Home Sales for the December period, economists were quick to note that the current level is still well below the long term mean. Announcing that 329,000 new homes were sold in December, the commerce department were confident in the substantial shift in both sales and also buyer sentiment. The Federal Reserve announced that bond purchasing would continue to further support the economy and drive further growth. With economists still concerned over the level of long term unemployment on the economy, the market is starting to factor in the possibility of a short term stutter in the equity markets and the greenback. GDP data released later in the week will provide a true indication of the sustainability of the US economy in the current environment.

On the equity market front, the S&P500 was 5 points higher to close at 1297. Announcing a 44% rise in profits for the period, coffee retailer Starbucks surprised the market on Wednesday. Long term growth estimates have however been revised in light of tough trading conditions. Still on the consumer sector, Netflix experienced a solid rise during the trade session, with earnings exceeding estimates. Reporting a 52% rise for the period, the company was confident that the 20 million current subscriber base could be grown.

On the currency front, The Japanese Yen found some stability on Wednesday with the currency pair trading at 82.22 late in the session. After a tough few days which saw economic and debt woes push the yen higher against the greenback, traders crystallised positions ahead of key announcements. New home sales data highlighted growing inefficiencies in demand and supply. Recording 329,000 new home sales for the period, traders were still eyeing key GDP data later in the week for true trend direction. Holding below parity, the Aussie dollar recovered from 0.98 levels to trade at 0.9985 late in the session. With Australia Day celebrated on wednesday, traders awaited key commodity news and data to provide direction for the currency market. Disappointing growth and inflation figures reported before the holiday period proved to have little impact on the trading range for the pair. Continuing on from previous strong movements, the Euro rose against the dollar on Wednesday. Trading at 1.37031 late in the session, the currency gained ground in response to the Federal Reserve announcement pertaining to bond purchases. Signifying the importance of the $600 million bond purchasing plan, comments from the Central Bank
had a harmful effect on the greenback.

Unexpected Results in UK and Australia | January 26, 2011

GBPUSD

Good morning. Mixed economic news marked the equity and commodity markets on Tuesday with Light Crude Oil falling 1.6% late in the session. Fears of a global economic slowdown persisted with traders eyeing safe haven currencies like the Swiss Franc. Surprisingly Gold did not receive an added boost. Consumer Confidence figures on Tuesday highlighted a shift in sentiment with a rise in the index to 60.6. The Case Shiller Housing index however was contradictory with a 1.6% fall for the major cities. Economists noted that the figure was a key barometer for economic health. US President Obama in his State of the Union address is forecast to release new conservative plans to limit spending and adjust investment plans. The economic restructuring would be aimed at reducing the deficit and boosting sector based growth.

On the equity market front, the Dow Jones was 66 points lower in late trade with corporate earnings and sentiment dragging the indices lower. 3M announced that margin pressure had impacted earnings for the quarter with the stock tracking the mood for the day with a  3% fall. Diversified industrials company Johnson and Johnson also experienced some headwinds with the company announcing a fall in revenues and a lower than expected earnings outlook. The 12% reduction in earnings led to analysts revaluations on the stock.

On the currency front, disappointing economic news pushed sterling lower on Tuesday. Reporting a 0.5% contraction in GDP for the last quarter, economists highlighted softening in retail sales and the problem of long term unemployment. Approximately 250,000 young people require financial assistance due to the employment status of their parents according to employment minister Chris Grayling. Speculation that this figure could grow over the coming 12 months, has led to a change in economic forecasts. GBPUSD traded at 1.5815. Weakening considerably during the Tuesday session, the Aussie dollar felt the effects of a sharp drop in inflation. Trading at 0.9896, the currency pair reacted to news that CPI had fallen from 2.7% to 0.4% for the quarter. The Reserve Bank in response to the news, is expected to leave rates on hold. Economists cite the floods in Queensland, a slowing of the Chinese economy and a strong currency for the contraction in inflation. Traders were cautious in taking on risk, pushing the greenback higher intraday.

How Will ECB Handle Interest Rates? | January 25, 2011

EURUSD

Good morning. Equity markets started the week on a stronger note with a 1% rise in the major indices. Leading up to key Initial Claims, Durable Orders and GDP data released later in the week, traders looked towards risk appetite in both the equity and currency markets. Flood damage and poor weather conditions in Australia continued to affect the economy with the retail sector becoming the newest victim. Leading grocer Woolworths announced a lacklustre 4% rise in earnings, citing a drop in demand due adverse conditions. The Japanese Ministry of Finance came under fire from economists during the session with public debt estimates shocking the market. Rising to 200% of total GDP, the level exceeds Greece and Ireland. Tomorrow will see the release of Consumer Confidence and the FHFA Housing Price Index. The market expects a slight rise for both.

On the equity market front, the Dow Jones rose 109 points with buoyant corporate news contributing to the movement. Biotech company Amgen announced a strong 4th quarter profit with a 10% rise for the period. The $1 billion result beat initial earnings estimates. Green Energy company, First Solar closed 6% higher with a broker upgrade helping support the stock.

On the currency front, speculation that public debt could grossly exceed GDP for 2011, had little impact on a rising yen on Monday. Starting the week on a strong note, traders were not concerned by figures highlighting government debt levels. Ranked higher than Greece and Ireland on a base GDP level, the Japanese Finance Ministry noted the importance of stability in the local currency. This could lead to further intervention measures, which were implemented in september-october of last year. The USDJPY traded at 82.51. Relatively lack lustre session for the Euro on Monday with the currency trading at 1.3639. Opening higher, the pair received a boost from traders looking to increase their risk positions. News that the ECB could be looking at curbing inflation through a possible rate hike, also helped support the movement. Economists have highlighted that recent debt woes have dissipated, with the Emergency bailout fund stealing the headlines.